577
FXUS63 KFGF 071728
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1228 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BRINGS RAIN, WIND AND SNOW.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AS SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS, DEW POINTS HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MN, SO ADJUSTED THEM AND RH DOWNWARD FOR A PERIOD IN THAT AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DEW POINT
READINGS AS THE CLOUDS MOVE IN AND SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK UP.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
PATCHY FOG IS BEING OBSERVED THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. VISIBILITY
HAS BEEN VARIABLE, BUT GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 1/2 MILE AND 1
MILE AT TIMES. FURTHER NORTH, HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR RAIN AS THE DOMINANT PTYPE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR WINTRY MIX
OR SNOW BEING NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND THE ADJACENT NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER 20S IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS ALOFT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW LOCATIONS WITH RELATIVELY FRESH
SNOWPACK TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND, IN SOME
LOCATIONS, BELOW ZERO. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP OVER THESE SAME AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT AIR MASS MAY
BE TOO DRY TO ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE FOG.
A WELL ORGANIZED, STRONG BUT PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE CLIPPER, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-45 MPH WILL
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGHEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN IN NORTHEAST
ND - THIS IS WHERE THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF REACHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA. AREAS IN SOUTHEAST ND WILL SEE LESSER WINDS
AS MIXING WILL BE LOCALLY MUTED OVER SNOWPACK.
AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, IT
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION AND ADDITIONAL GUSTY WEST WINDS IN ITS
IMMEDIATE WAKE. MORE DETAILS ON THIS AND ITS POTENTIAL FOR
ADVISORY-LEVEL IMPACTS FOUND BELOW.
BEHIND THE CLIPPER, THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE QUASI-
ZONAL / SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL PROMOTE TREND TOWARD NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. AS
OF NOW, THE CHANCE FOR WINTER IMPACTS WITHIN THIS PERIOD IS VERY
LOW DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE FREEZING, ALONG WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION BEYOND LATE THIS WEEKEND.
..WEDNESDAY'S POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY FAVOR A TRACK OF THIS
CLIPPER THAT WOULD KEEP VAST MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THAT BEING SAID, THERE IS A LARGE SUBSET
OF GUIDANCE THAT STILL EEKS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL JUST OVER
THE BOARD (PARTICULARLY ALONG THE MINNESOTA INTERNATIONAL
BORDER), CONCURRENT WITH GUSTY WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO A SMALL SUBSET OF GUIDANCE THAT BLOSSOMS A LARGER
AREA OF SNOWFALL OVER OUR AREA, STILL MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
200. THIS SCENARIO FEATURES MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW RATES QUICKLY
PROGRESSING THROUGH WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
TIMING OF THE CLIPPER AND ITS SNOW FAVORS A PASSAGE DURING
DAYTIME HOURS, WHICH WOULD MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE HELP OF APRIL'S INSOLATION. THUS,
MAIN IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY BE TIED TO REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
FALLING SNOW CONCURRENT WITH GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING
SNOW. THIS WOULDN'T BE THE 'NORMAL' BLOWING SNOW THAT OUR
REGION SEES, AND WOULD NEED TO BE TIED TO FALLING SNOW WITH
GUSTY WINDS.
ULTIMATELY, WE ARE STILL MAINTAINING AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT THE ND AIRPORTS. THE
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT SOME SITES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN OR EVEN
RAIN/SNOW. KEPT THE VISIBILITY IMPACTS MVFR AT WORST OR IN PROB
GROUPS WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN. AFTER THE RAIN AND SNOW MOVE BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME SITES IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR
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