562
FXUS63 KFGF 071929
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
229 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BRINGS RAIN, WIND AND SNOW.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW.
- WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GUSTS TO45
MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL SWING
INTO THE PRAIRIES AND PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN
SOUTHERN CANADA, BUT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW, WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE PLAIN INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN JUST TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY, WITH
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CONVERGING SOLUTIONS ON A
STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH DETAILS
STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE AT THE POINT. DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING
IN A WARMER AND WETTER PERIOD IN DAYS 4-7.
..RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
CURRENT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION DO NO SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND, SO
IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET. CAMS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER ROUND COMING IN WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES IT SEEMS
MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE WARMED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AND MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. CLOSER TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER, THE BULK OF THE SOUNDING IS LEFT OF THE ZERO
LINE AND SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY. AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT, WITH PROBABILITY OF OVER AN INCH PRETTY LOW FOR ALL BUT
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST ANGLE HAVE A 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE, BUT GIVEN BORDERLINE GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
..WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT SO FAR HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST, AND THERE WILL BE
SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE BEST PRESSURE RISES SEEM
MORE OVER SD THAN OUR FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COULD BE ENOUGH
PGF AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE HIGHER WINDS. HREF DOESN'T
HAVE VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TOMORROW, BUT
THE NBM IS UP TO 80 PERCENT AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS UP AROUND
38 KTS FOR GUSTS. WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KTS AT THE ND AIRPORTS. THE
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, WITH SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT SOME SITES AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
SOME MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD, ALONG WITH SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN OR EVEN
RAIN/SNOW. KEPT THE VISIBILITY IMPACTS MVFR AT WORST OR IN PROB
GROUPS WHERE IT IS LESS CERTAIN. AFTER THE RAIN AND SNOW MOVE BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME SITES IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006-014-
015-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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