999
FXUS63 KFGF 080447
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BRINGS RAIN, WIND AND SNOW.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW.
- WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL SWING
INTO THE PRAIRIES AND PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN
SOUTHERN CANADA, BUT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW, WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE PLAIN INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN JUST TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY, WITH
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CONVERGING SOLUTIONS ON A
STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH DETAILS
STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE AT THE POINT. DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING
IN A WARMER AND WETTER PERIOD IN DAYS 4-7.
..RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
CURRENT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION DO NO SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND, SO
IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET. CAMS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER ROUND COMING IN WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES IT SEEMS
MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE WARMED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AND MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. CLOSER TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER, THE BULK OF THE SOUNDING IS LEFT OF THE ZERO
LINE AND SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY. AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT, WITH PROBABILITY OF OVER AN INCH PRETTY LOW FOR ALL BUT
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST ANGLE HAVE A 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE, BUT GIVEN BORDERLINE GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
..WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT SO FAR HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST, AND THERE WILL BE
SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE BEST PRESSURE RISES SEEM
MORE OVER SD THAN OUR FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COULD BE ENOUGH
PGF AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE HIGHER WINDS. HREF DOESN'T
HAVE VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TOMORROW, BUT
THE NBM IS UP TO 80 PERCENT AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS UP AROUND
38 KTS FOR GUSTS. WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
LLWS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TONIGHT, BUT THE BIGGER
STORY WILL BE THE FALLING CEILINGS AND INCREASINGS WINDS. OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, A BAND OF RAIN WILL PUSH EASTWARD,
IMPACTING TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AT KBJI LATER THIS MORNING.
CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR DURING THIS TIME. ONCE
PRECIPITATION ENDS, VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE
LOW END VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ALONG WITH STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 KNOTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO ROAM THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE, PROB30S WERE ADDED IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. WINDS SHOULD START TO RELAX LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE MORE PERSISTENT,
WITH MVFR HANGING ON AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006-014-
015-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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