047
FXUS63 KFGF 081125
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF RAIN AND WET SNOW TO MOVE THRU THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. COATING OF NEW SNOW ALONG MANITOBA BORDER.
- WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GUSTS TO 45
MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
INITIAL TROUGH WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST IS NEAR WALHALLA TO
WEST OF GRAND FORKS TO COOPERSTOWN THEN WEST OF OAKES. AHEAD OF
IT IS A BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW FAR NORTH...HIGHWAY 2 AREA
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...AND MAINLY RAIN FAR SOUTH. THIS SHIFTS EAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
BRIEF CLEARING IS NOTED MOVING IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO DVL BASIN MIDDAY AND EASTWARD AFTER THAT. THERE
WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. HRRR INDICATES
TEMPS WARM UP AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT SO THAT SHOWERS WILL BE
MAINLY RAIN VARIETY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
WILL UPDATE FOR ALL SNOW ALONG MB BORDER CAVALIER ND EASTWARD.
ABOUT AN HOURS WORTH OF ENOUGH SNOW RATES COMBINED WITH NIGHT TO
GET SOME ACCUMULATION ON ROADS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS FROM CAVALIER AND LANGDON THRU
DEVILS LAKE AND EXTENDS TO BISMARCK. BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS
AHEAD OF A TROUGH IN WHICH WINDS TURN WESTERLY BEHIND IT. TEMPS
SUGGEST MOSTLY LIQUID LIGHT RAIN (UP TO 0.10 INCH) BUT ENOUGH
COLD AIR ALOFT TO TURN RAIN TO WET SNOW ALONG NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING FROM CANDO TO LANGDON AND
LIKELY THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES EAST. TEMPS WILL BE
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BY A DEGREE OR TWO, SO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED BUT A BRIEF COATING OF NEW SNOW ON GRASSY
SURFACES AND OTHER COLDER SURFACES IS LIKELY.
ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE DVL BASIN TOWARD 17Z THEN
EASTWARD THRU THE AFTERNOON. BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL FORM WITH
THIS AND THIS IS SHOWN NICELY BY SHORT TERM MODELS/CAMS. SFC
TEMPS SUGGEST RAIN SHOWERS, BUT A SWITCH TO SNOW SHOWERS VERY
POSSIBLE AS SYSTEMS MOVES OUT AND TEMPERATURES DROP BEHIND THIS
FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN FCST AREA. ONCE AGAIN A COATING OF
SNOW IN GRASSY AREAS, BUT NO TRAVEL IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
GUSTY WEST WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT. WINDS TO MIX DOWN ISNT TOO
IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS COLD ADVECTION BUT LARGER PRESSURE RISES
ARE IN SD THIS AFTN. SO MARGINAL WIND ADVISORY ANTICIPATED WITH
GUSTS 35-38 KTS IN E ND ADVISORY AREA. NO CHANGE TO AREA OF WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN ALBERTA WILL SWING
INTO THE PRAIRIES AND PLAINS TONIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN
SOUTHERN CANADA, BUT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGING THROUGH
TONIGHT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER OUR AREA.
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW, WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF IT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS
OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE PLAIN INTO THE MIDWEST. UPPER
RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN JUST TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY, WITH
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY FOR SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CONVERGING SOLUTIONS ON A
STRONGER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH ON MONDAY, ALTHOUGH DETAILS
STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE AT THE POINT. DOES SEEM TO BE TRENDING
IN A WARMER AND WETTER PERIOD IN DAYS 4-7.
..RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
CURRENT LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 850MB
WARM AIR ADVECTION DO NO SEEM TO BE REACHING THE GROUND, SO
IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH SUNSET. CAMS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A STRONGER ROUND COMING IN WITH THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES IT SEEMS
MOST MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE WARMED UP IN THE LOWER LAYERS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 AND MOSTLY RAIN EXPECTED IN THAT AREA. CLOSER TO THE
CANADIAN BORDER, THE BULK OF THE SOUNDING IS LEFT OF THE ZERO
LINE AND SNOW SEEMS MORE LIKELY. AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY
LIGHT, WITH PROBABILITY OF OVER AN INCH PRETTY LOW FOR ALL BUT
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST ANGLE HAVE A 30
PERCENT CHANCE FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE, BUT GIVEN BORDERLINE GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR
WINTER HEADLINES AT THIS POINT.
..WIND ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ND TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RAMP UP AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
TO OUR NORTHWEST, BUT SO FAR HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW TOMORROW, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST, AND THERE WILL BE
SOME DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE BEST PRESSURE RISES SEEM
MORE OVER SD THAN OUR FORECAST AREA BUT STILL COULD BE ENOUGH
PGF AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR THE HIGHER WINDS. HREF DOESN'T
HAVE VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH TOMORROW, BUT
THE NBM IS UP TO 80 PERCENT AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS UP AROUND
38 KTS FOR GUSTS. WENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY FOR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
CHANGEABLE DAY. INITIAL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE RRV AND WILL
TRACK EAST THIS MORNING WITH SOUTH WINDS TURNING WEST-SOUTHWEST.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES INTO DVL BASIN MIDDAY AND MOVES EAST AND
BEHIND IT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS 35-40 KTS IN
E ND. BAND OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVES EAST THIS MORNING, THEN A
PERIOD OF CLEARING THEN CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT. FOR THE MOST PART
CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY IS ON THE MVFR/VFR BORDER. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THIS COLD FRONT AND PUSH THRU THIS
AFTN, UNCERTAIN COVERAGE. TEMPS SUGGEST LIGHT RAIN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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