253
FXUS63 KFGF 241738
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1238 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY WITH
LOWEST RH VALUES 20 TO 28 PERCENT AND FUELS REMAIN DRY.
- SOAKING RAIN A POSSIBILITY IN MANY AREAS LATE SUNDAY THRU
MONDAY. 48 HOUR PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OF MORE OF RAIN IS
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO MUCH OF
MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENTLY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SITTING ON THE NORTH
DAKOTA AND CANADIAN BORDER. TWO COLD FRONTS ARE EXTENDING OFF
IT, ONE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY, AND THE OTHER
ONE SURGING THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. ALOFT THE LOW IS
TILTED TO THE WEST OVER THE COLDER AIR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SO THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT, WITH WINDS NOW
GUSTING NEAR 30MPH. THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7PM. WINDS BEHIND THE FIRST COLD FRONT ARE TURNING TO
THE WEST, WHILE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE SOUTH. THE
WIND ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM WITH DIURNAL
HEATING DYING AND THE COLD FRONT PASSING.
ALONG THIS COLD FRONT THERE STILL REMAINS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING IN NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL MN. EXPECTED HAZARDS ARE 1 INCH HAIL AND 60MPH WINDS.
WITH THE MEAN WIND MOSTLY PARALLEL WITH THE COLD FRONT, THE
EXPECTED STORM MODE WILL MOSTLY BE LINEAR IF STORMS GET GOING.
CAPE VALUES WILL ONLY BE AROUND 700 J/KG, WITH BULK SHEAR AROUND
40KTS. MOST OF THE CAMS HAVE THE LINE OF STORMS FIRING JUST
WEST OF BEMIDJI SOMETIME BETWEEN 3PM AND 5PM, THEN MOVING EAST
WITH THE FRONT.
THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH ON AND OFF RAIN. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO JUST SIT AND SPIN IN SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEPS US IN THE ACTIVE
CYCLONIC FLOW, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEING PULLED IN
FROM CANADA. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S
WITH BREEZY WINDS. MOST OF THE WEEKEND WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST A
SLIGHT (20 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN. SUNDAY A LARGE TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEST COAST, LEADING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALSO FORM A COLORADO LOW THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA. MOST MODEL OUTCOMES HAVE THE TIMING BEING ACROSS ND AND
MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK, THE EARLIER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD
LINGER IN CENTRAL CANADA, POSSIBLY LEADING TO MORE CYCLONIC
FLOW, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A SHORTWAVE AND COLLOCATED COLD
FRONT COULD SPIN OFF OF THE LOW MID WEEK, AND MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH. THIS COULD CREATE MORE CHANCES OF RAIN AND BREEZY WINDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. STRATOCU FIELD OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND THAT IS
STARTING TO MOVE TOWARDS KDVL IS MOSTLY IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS ARE DOWN BELOW 3000. WILL KEEP KDVL
VFR FOR NOW. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS WILL
STAY MOSTLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NOT IMPACT SITES
FURTHER EAST, BUT GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL DROP DOWN BELOW 10 KTS AND WOBBLE AROUND A BIT IN DIRECTION
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JR
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