577
FXUS63 KFGF 271720
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1220 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING THIS MORNING AND LASTING
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 40-50 MPH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TODAY. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1 INCH OR MORE WITHIN FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS SLOWLY
PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS LEAVES SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. ONGOING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE SEED FOR A POWERFUL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY, PUTTING US IN A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EVERYDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S RETURNING.
..WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM KANSAS
TO LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST, WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN A REGION OF STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. RAIN WILL START THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH, SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN ND AND MN TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL
A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THE LOW TRACKS,
WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE CUT OFF IN HEAVIER RAIN VERSUS
MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS SETS UP. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY FROM NOTHING/SPRINKLES IN PARTS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO OVER AN INCH IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE LONGEST.
PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST IN WEST
CENTRAL MN AT 70%. TOTALS WILL VARY MOST OVER SHORT DISTANCES ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN, WHERE LITTLE SHIFTS IN
THE SYSTEMS TRACK WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FINAL AMOUNT
OF RAIN RECEIVED. THIS INCLUDES PLACES SUCH AS VALLEY CITY,
GRAND FORKS, THIEF RIVER FALLS, AND ROSEAU.
ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY. THE BEST PRESSURE
RISES ARE TO OUR SOUTH, BUT WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND A NEAR 990 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN MN, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR SO.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED
FOR ANY ZONES MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, BASED ON
THE WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, QUESTIONABLE MIXING DEPTH AND
THE BULLSEYE OF PRESSURE RISES BEING OUTSIDE OUR CWA, DECIDED TO
HOLD ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MOSTLY
VFR BY 7PM WITH BJI THE EXCEPTION AS MVFR CONDITIONS LINGER
UNTIL AROUND 9-10PM. WINDS AN EQUAL CONCERN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS 30KT GUSTS WILL BE PREVALENT FOR MOST SITES UNTIL
THE 23Z TO 02Z TIMEFRAME. THIS IS JUST A ROUGH ESTIMATE AND
TIMING MAY FALL OUTSIDE THIS WINDOW FOR A GIVEN SITE BUT THAT
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS FOR NOW AT LEAST. LINGER RAIN ENDING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL SITES BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE
ALREADY NEGLIGIBLE SO MINIMAL CONCERN FROM THIS. VFR FOR ALL
SITES WITH A STEADY 10-15KT N/NNW WIND BY MIDNIGHT ONWARDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-
029.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...TT
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