592
FXUS63 KFGF 291858
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
158 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THE SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH
MAINLY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO CONTINUED
COOL MEAN LAYER TEMPERATURES AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. LUCKILY, THE CENTER OF THE LARGER TROUGHING IS DOWNSTREAM
OF OUR AREA, SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS OCCURS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING AFTERNOONS WILL
FALL MUCH LOWER, WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR 20-30% RHS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND AWAY
FROM CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS QUITE
WEAK (GENERALLY 20-30 KNOTS). FORECASTED HRB VALUES DO INDICATE
THAT, DESPITE GREEN-UP BEGINNING, WE STILL REMAIN FULLY DEAD FOR
THE MOST PART ON THE LIVE FUEL MOISTURE FRONT AND ERC VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 60-80TH PERCENTILES. AS SUCH, FUELS REMAIN CONDUCIVE
FOR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS, BUT WINDS NEED TO BE CRANKED UP A
LOT MORE TO ACHIEVE CRITICAL/RED FLAG.
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE A FEW PERTURBATIONS
THAT BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO VERY WEAK, SO
HIGHER LEVEL IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THE MAIN STORY OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD
CEILINGS. RIGHT NOW, A BROAD SWATH OF STRATUS IS ERODING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM DIURNALLY, BUT A FEW SITES IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA ARE MVFR. THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE WIDESPREAD AS THE
MAIN CEILINGS ARE 3500-5000 FT BENEATH CLOUD COVER, BUT THERE
DOES APPEAR TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AT
BJI AND TVF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS BECOME
MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER CLOUD DECK WORKS ITS WAY FROM CANADA INTO THE
CONUS, POTENTIALLY CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS AT DVL. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW RIGHT NOW SO IT WAS NOT ADDED TO THE
FORECASTED TAF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
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