231
FXUS63 KFGF 300442
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THE SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH
MAINLY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO CONTINUED
COOL MEAN LAYER TEMPERATURES AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. LUCKILY, THE CENTER OF THE LARGER TROUGHING IS DOWNSTREAM
OF OUR AREA, SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS OCCURS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING AFTERNOONS WILL
FALL MUCH LOWER, WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR 20-30% RHS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND AWAY
FROM CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS QUITE
WEAK (GENERALLY 20-30 KNOTS). FORECASTED HRB VALUES DO INDICATE
THAT, DESPITE GREEN-UP BEGINNING, WE STILL REMAIN FULLY DEAD FOR
THE MOST PART ON THE LIVE FUEL MOISTURE FRONT AND ERC VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 60-80TH PERCENTILES. AS SUCH, FUELS REMAIN CONDUCIVE
FOR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS, BUT WINDS NEED TO BE CRANKED UP A
LOT MORE TO ACHIEVE CRITICAL/RED FLAG.
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE A FEW PERTURBATIONS
THAT BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO VERY WEAK, SO
HIGHER LEVEL IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT MOST TERMINALS,
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING KDVL. AT KDVL, A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE
FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. NO
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS PRECIPITATION, AND
SINCE THESE SHOWERS ARE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY, I DID NOT ADD
ANY PROB30S INTO THIS SET OF TAFS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE, THEN RETURNING TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY, WITH A FEW STRAY GUSTS, BUT AT
THIS POINT, IT WOULD APPEAR GUST FREQUENCY SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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