773
FXUS63 KFGF 300921
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
421 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 418 AM CDT THU APR 30 2026
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SOME MID LEVEL RETURNS ON RADAR AND SOME
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS DROPS SOUTH THRU THE
AREA THRU 18Z. COOL AIR ALOFT WILL GENERATE CU WITH ANY SUN.
EVENING SHIFT UPDATED FOR SOME LOW POP FOR -SHRA THIS AFTN IN SE
ND AND KEPT THEM IN TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORS...BUT THIS AFTN MAIN
SHORT WAVE IS MORE INTO SD. OVERALL EXPECTING NO IMPACTS FROM
ANY OF THIS PRECIP AND MORE TRACE AMOUNTS IF ANY. KEPT MESSAGING
AS IS WHICH IS FOR SOME LOWER RH VALUES FRIDAY TO SUNDAY...BUT
ONLY MARGINALLY NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX POSSIBLE. FRIDAY HAS LOWER
RH WITH SOME UPPER 20S IN BEMIDJI AREA BUT WINDS THERE ARE 3-4
KTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
THE SURFACE PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH
MAINLY NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL US MOVING AWAY FROM OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH TOMORROW THANKS TO CONTINUED
COOL MEAN LAYER TEMPERATURES AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. LUCKILY, THE CENTER OF THE LARGER TROUGHING IS DOWNSTREAM
OF OUR AREA, SO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO RISE
APPRECIABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THIS OCCURS, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DURING AFTERNOONS WILL
FALL MUCH LOWER, WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR 20-30% RHS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND AWAY
FROM CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS QUITE
WEAK (GENERALLY 20-30 KNOTS). FORECASTED HRB VALUES DO INDICATE
THAT, DESPITE GREEN-UP BEGINNING, WE STILL REMAIN FULLY DEAD FOR
THE MOST PART ON THE LIVE FUEL MOISTURE FRONT AND ERC VALUES ARE
APPROACHING 60-80TH PERCENTILES. AS SUCH, FUELS REMAIN CONDUCIVE
FOR NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS, BUT WINDS NEED TO BE CRANKED UP A
LOT MORE TO ACHIEVE CRITICAL/RED FLAG.
EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE A FEW PERTURBATIONS
THAT BRING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. HOWEVER, MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS ALSO VERY WEAK, SO
HIGHER LEVEL IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED APR 29 2026
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AT MOST TERMINALS,
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION BEING KDVL. AT KDVL, A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE
FOR A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS PASS THROUGH. NO
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS PRECIPITATION, AND
SINCE THESE SHOWERS ARE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY, I DID NOT ADD
ANY PROB30S INTO THIS SET OF TAFS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE VARIABLE, THEN RETURNING TO THE NORTH
THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TODAY, WITH A FEW STRAY GUSTS, BUT AT
THIS POINT, IT WOULD APPEAR GUST FREQUENCY SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH
TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE TAF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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