405
FXUS63 KFGF 301719
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BRING N/NW FLOW
ALOFT TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. AS
THE CANADIAN LOW DEGRADES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FLOW BECOMES
SLIGHTLY MORE NW WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY STILL PERCOLATING THROUGH
THE CWA. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A CLOUD PROBLEM BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
MAY EMERGE AT TIMES THOUGH OVERALL DRY INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WILL
PRECLUDE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF ANY PRECIP. BY MONDAY A MORE ROBUST
WAVE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES WITH A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 0.10"
DEPENDING ON SYSTEM TRACK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (LOW)
WITH THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL RIDGING TO OUR WEST THERE
WILL BE MINOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. DAILY
MINIMUM RH LOOKS TO REGULARLY BE 30-40% WITH MORE SPORADIC INSTANCES
AS LOW AS 25% IN CASES OF STRONGER MIXING DAYS (SATURDAY/SUNDAY).
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AND FRIDAY AT 10-15
MPH (GUSTS TO 20) WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW SATURDAY AT 10-15 MPH.
WINDS VARYING ANYWHERE FROM W TO N FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY AT 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 30-35MPH. OVERALL MONDAY IS PROBABLY THE ONLY DAY WITH REAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT THE PROLONGED LOW RH STRETCH MAY LEAD TO
LOWER END CONCERNS EVEN BEFORE THEN WITH DAILY HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR TODAY WITH SOME LOWER VFR STATO-CUMULUS CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM 3500-6000. THESE EVENTUALLY LIFT THIS EVENING FROM 5-8PM
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS DYING OFF ACCORDINGLY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 MPH AND GUSTS OCCASIONALLY OVER
15 MPH. OVERNIGHT WINDS GOING LIGHT AND USUALLY PREVAILING FROM
THE NORTH BUT OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE AT UNDER 5 MPH.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT
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