808
FXUS63 KFGF 141210
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
710 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING THRU THIS EVENINGFOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND WIND. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF
OUR COUNTIES FRIDAY.
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY, STRONGEST IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS FRIDAY MAY GUST TO 55 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UPDATED POPS A BIT AND WEATHER TO ADD ISOLD T-STORMS AS THERE
ARE A COUPLE WITHIN AN ELEVATED SHOWER AREA FROM CARRINGTON UP
THRU DEVILS LAKE. DID SPS THRU 15Z AS WITH WINDS ALOFT 50-60 MPH
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO THE SFC. EARLIER IN BIS AREA 61 MPH FROM NDAWN IN SW
WELLS CO. (10 METER WIND). THE BIG QUESTION ABOUT
WINDS....SUSTAINED WINDS IN KTS ARE MATCHING MUCH MORE CLOSELY
TO THE MEAN OF CONSHORT VS NBM 5.0 WHICH WERE WAY TOO HIGH. THUS
TONED DOWN SUSTAINED WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST HEADLINES. CURRENTLY
THIS EARLY MORNING WAITING TO SEE HOW SURFACE WINDS RESPOND AS
WE WILL HAVE 60 KTS AROUND 850 MB TO MOVE INTO THE RRV.
OTHERWISE LOW POP FOR -SHRA INTO THE RRV MIDDAY WITH A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE POP EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN MN. STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE RRV THRU EARLY AFTERNOON THEN A BREAK AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST IN DVL BASIN LATER TODAY/EVENING. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE ALONG
MANITOBA BORDER AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND ROLLA AND WEST.
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED OR RE-ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
WITH LOW RH TODAY AND FRIDAY AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
OUR BREAK IN HOWLING WINDS OCCURRING TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE
LOW LEVEL JET STARTS RAMPING UP LATE TONIGHT, AND SOME OF THE
MODELS START MIXING WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER STARTING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SLOW DOWN A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO MANITOBA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY, BUT WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST AS 980MB
LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
DOWN INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FLOW BRIEFLY
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH FOR MID-WEEK. SEVERAL OF THE MODEL RUNS BRING BETTER
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND ECMWF EFI HAS A SLIGHT WET
SIGNAL STARTING TO NOSE UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND DURING THAT
PERIOD.
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN SOME
TEENS IN EASTERN ND. FORTUNATELY THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER BELOW CRITICAL. THAT WILL CHANGE
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
BRINGS STRONG SOUTHEAST THEN WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. RH VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW THANKS TO SOME CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, MAINLY
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
50-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RH TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THAT
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. RH VALUES WILL BE EVEN LOWER WEST OF THE
RRV. PUT OUT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES. A BIT OF A BREAK IN WIND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, BUT THEN WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
OUT OF THE WEST. WHILE THE 850MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
THURSDAY, FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME STRONG MIXING WITH PRESSURE RISES
AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO COME DOWN. RH VALUES
WILL DROP SHARPLY, DOWN CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT OR EVEN LOWER BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
CWA.
..WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NBM TRIES TO PUSH THE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY
AND ON FRIDAY UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS SUSTAINED. WHILE THIS SEEMS
EXCESSIVE SINCE IT IS MORE 90TH PERCENTILE INSTEAD OF MIDDLE OF
THE ENSEMBLE, THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OUR COUNTIES,
BUT ADVISORY SEEMS LIKELY. KEPT THE ADVISORY JUST FOR THURSDAY
FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER WIND HEADLINE OF SOME SORT
FOR FRIDAY AS PROBABILITY OF GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH IS 60 TO 70
PERCENT IN SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
WINDS TODAY WILL BE A HUGE ISSUE IN TERMS OF HOW STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL GET. WILL SEE WIND GUSTS AT KGFK ABOVE 30 KTS MOST OF
THE TIME THRU MID AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40KTS. SAME IN
FARGO. A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS FOLLOW BOTH PLACES MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS SFC GRADIENT LESSENS WITH WEAK TROUGH PASSING THRU
AND WIND SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHWEST AND THEN WEST. DVL SIMILAR IN
THAT STRONGEST WINDS EARLY ON IN THE FCST THEN A BIT LIGHTER BY
LATE MORNING. TVF WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS MOVE IN THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS 40 KTS OR SO LATE MORNING.
BJI AREA TO SEE INCREASE IN SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD WISE.... CLOUD BASES REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE 10K FT AGL THRU THE PD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-
007-008-013>016-022-023-027>031-040.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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