390
FXUS63 KFGF 141742
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING THRU THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY AND WIND. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF
OUR COUNTIES FRIDAY.
- GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY, STRONGEST IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. WEST WINDS FRIDAY MAY GUST TO 55 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE STOUT ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND WE HAVE BEEN GETTING A LOT A BLOWING DUST. A FEW
SPOTS HAVE GONE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS IN SOME
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY, ALTHOUGH THOSE LOW VIS
ARE DEPENDENT ON LAND USE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP MOST COUNTIES ADVISORY
AND JUST GO WARNING WHERE WE HAVE REPORTS OF BROWNOUT
VISIBILITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST, LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL NOT SEE MUCH REDUCTION IN SPEED TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS. ALSO BLANKETED THE
ENTIRE AREA IN RED FLAG AS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE DROPPED
DOWN TO 25 PERCENT AND EVEN NON-ADVISORY WINDS WILL STILL BE
MEETING FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA. OVERALL, THE WINDS, DUST, AND
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW. GETTING A
FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR
DRY MICROBURSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT SO FAR NOT ENOUGH
RAIN TO OFFER RELIEF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
UPDATED POPS A BIT AND WEATHER TO ADD ISOLD T-STORMS AS THERE
ARE A COUPLE WITHIN AN ELEVATED SHOWER AREA FROM CARRINGTON UP
THRU DEVILS LAKE. DID SPS THRU 15Z AS WITH WINDS ALOFT 50-60 MPH
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO GET BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO THE SFC. EARLIER IN BIS AREA 61 MPH FROM NDAWN IN SW
WELLS CO. (10 METER WIND). THE BIG QUESTION ABOUT
WINDS....SUSTAINED WINDS IN KTS ARE MATCHING MUCH MORE CLOSELY
TO THE MEAN OF CONSHORT VS NBM 5.0 WHICH WERE WAY TOO HIGH. THUS
TONED DOWN SUSTAINED WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST HEADLINES. CURRENTLY
THIS EARLY MORNING WAITING TO SEE HOW SURFACE WINDS RESPOND AS
WE WILL HAVE 60 KTS AROUND 850 MB TO MOVE INTO THE RRV.
OTHERWISE LOW POP FOR -SHRA INTO THE RRV MIDDAY WITH A BIT
HIGHER CHANCE POP EAST OF THE VALLEY THIS AFTN IN MN. STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE RRV THRU EARLY AFTERNOON THEN A BREAK AS WINDS TURN
SOUTHWEST THEN WEST IN DVL BASIN LATER TODAY/EVENING. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE MORE ALONG
MANITOBA BORDER AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL ND ROLLA AND WEST.
WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED OR RE-ISSUED FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN
WITH LOW RH TODAY AND FRIDAY AND GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
OUR BREAK IN HOWLING WINDS OCCURRING TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS AND SURFACE HIGH FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DIG INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT, WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PICKING UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE
LOW LEVEL JET STARTS RAMPING UP LATE TONIGHT, AND SOME OF THE
MODELS START MIXING WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER STARTING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS SLOW DOWN A BIT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO MANITOBA AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY, BUT WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST AS 980MB
LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
DOWN INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FLOW BRIEFLY
BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH FOR MID-WEEK. SEVERAL OF THE MODEL RUNS BRING BETTER
MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION AND ECMWF EFI HAS A SLIGHT WET
SIGNAL STARTING TO NOSE UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND DURING THAT
PERIOD.
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND EVEN SOME
TEENS IN EASTERN ND. FORTUNATELY THE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER BELOW CRITICAL. THAT WILL CHANGE
HOWEVER AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
BRINGS STRONG SOUTHEAST THEN WESTERLY WINDS TOMORROW INTO
FRIDAY. RH VALUES WILL NOT BE AS LOW THANKS TO SOME CLOUDS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ON THURSDAY, MAINLY
FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
50-60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RH TO DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT IN THAT
AREA FOR A FEW HOURS. RH VALUES WILL BE EVEN LOWER WEST OF THE
RRV. PUT OUT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN TIER
OF COUNTIES. A BIT OF A BREAK IN WIND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH, BUT THEN WINDS PICK UP AGAIN
OUT OF THE WEST. WHILE THE 850MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
THURSDAY, FRIDAY WILL SEE SOME STRONG MIXING WITH PRESSURE RISES
AND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION STARTING TO COME DOWN. RH VALUES
WILL DROP SHARPLY, DOWN CLOSE TO 20 PERCENT OR EVEN LOWER BY
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
CWA.
..WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NBM TRIES TO PUSH THE WINDS BOTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY
AND ON FRIDAY UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS SUSTAINED. WHILE THIS SEEMS
EXCESSIVE SINCE IT IS MORE 90TH PERCENTILE INSTEAD OF MIDDLE OF
THE ENSEMBLE, THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY OF GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO HIGH WIND WARNING FOR OUR COUNTIES,
BUT ADVISORY SEEMS LIKELY. KEPT THE ADVISORY JUST FOR THURSDAY
FOR NOW BUT WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER WIND HEADLINE OF SOME SORT
FOR FRIDAY AS PROBABILITY OF GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH IS 60 TO 70
PERCENT IN SOME AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
BLOWING DUST IS REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 TO 2 MILES AT
TIMES, AND SOME SPOTS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN AIRPORTS HAVE GONE
EVEN LOWER. WILL KEEP IT 1 MILE AND ABOVE FOR NOW, AND THERE
WILL BE SOME REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
AS WINDS TREND SLIGHTLY DOWN AND JUST GUST TO 25 TO 30 KTS
INSTEAD OF 35 TO 40 KTS. THE ND AIRPORTS AND KTVF WILL SEE
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST, MAINLY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF WIND TONIGHT ALSO. GUSTS UP ABOVE 30 KTS FOR ALL TAF
SITES BUT KBJI TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-054.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
016-027-030.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052-053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
013>015-022-027.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ001-
004-007.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ002.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ016-023-
028>031-040.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/JR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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