150
FXUS63 KFGF 142007
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
307 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH AT TIMES TODAY WILL BRING
BLOWING DUST TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
- AREAS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WILL SEE A BREAK IN
THE WINDS STARTING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST ABOVE 40 MPH OVERNIGHT. WIND
ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THAT AREA INTO FRIDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TODAY AND TOMORROW. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING DOWN
INTO EASTERN ND MOVING OFF INTO MN. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IS STARTING TO RELAX JUST A BIT AS THE TROUGH
AXIS COMES IN, BUT PLENTY TIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN ND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE LOW. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE BRINGING OUR
BLOWING DUST AND DROPPING VIS CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN
SOME SPOTS WILL DECREASE A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS, THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE MIXING ALL
THE WAY UP TO 700MB, AND ALTHOUGH THE JET IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG, THERE IS PLENTY OF MOMENTUM TO MIX DOWN. WINDS AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH AT 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 AND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WHILE DEFINITELY COULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF BLOWING DUST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, THIS TIME FROM THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE
SOUTH, CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL
GO IS UNCERTAIN. MOST LIKELY WILL BE EXPANDING THE BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY INTO DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND UPPER SHEYENNE IN ADDITION
TO THE RRV THROUGH 00Z AS THE WEST WINDS START COMING IN THIS
EVENING. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF ANY MORE DUST PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED
BEYOND THAT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE WEST WINDS WILL BRING
EVEN LOWER RHS, AS CURRENT VALUES ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF RECOVERY TONIGHT AS RH VALUES COME UP
INTO THE 40 AND 50S, BUT FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. AFTERNOON
RH VALUES IN ALL OF OUR AREA SHOULD GET DOWN TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 MPH EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE WIND
ADVISORY AREA. THUS, EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES FROM NOW UNTIL 9 PM TOMORROW.
WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE WIND ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR SUNDAY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER SD/MN/WI
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA THAN THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF EFI HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION, AND NBM HAS A OVER 60 PERCENT CHANCE CWA-WIDE FOR
OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERE IS EVEN 50 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY 06Z MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME INSTABILITY CREEPING INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH OTHERS KEEP
EVEN ELEVATED CAPE UNDER 500 J/KG. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
THOUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THAT DAY.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AGAIN BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN AGAIN BACK
DOWN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH A FEW MINOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
BLOWING DUST IS REDUCING VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1 TO 2 MILES AT
TIMES, AND SOME SPOTS OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN AIRPORTS HAVE GONE
EVEN LOWER. WILL KEEP IT 1 MILE AND ABOVE FOR NOW, AND THERE
WILL BE SOME REDUCTION IN BLOWING DUST FOR A TIME THIS EVENING
AS WINDS TREND SLIGHTLY DOWN AND JUST GUST TO 25 TO 30 KTS
INSTEAD OF 35 TO 40 KTS. THE ND AIRPORTS AND KTVF WILL SEE
WINDS PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST, MAINLY TOMORROW ALTHOUGH
PLENTY OF WIND TONIGHT ALSO. GUSTS UP ABOVE 30 KTS FOR ALL TAF
SITES BUT KBJI TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-054.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ008-
016-027-030-039-053.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052-053.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-
013>015-022-027.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>003.
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ004-
007-027-029>031-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ016-023-
028>031-040.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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