908
FXUS63 KFGF 150829
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
329 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST IMPACTS AGAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WINDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS TO OUR NORTH, MOVING
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIND
GUSTS AND BLOWING DUST. VISIBILITY THIS MORNING IS GENERALLY IN
THE 4-6 MILE RANGE AS DUST CONTINUES TO SETTLE OUT OF THE COLUMN
OVERNIGHT. REDUCED VISIBILITY IS LIKELY ONCE MORE TODAY, BUT
SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT WE OBSERVED YESTERDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT,
AS VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING ACROSS THE
AREA. IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN HAZY OVERNIGHT, BUT IMPACTFUL
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY AS WINDS HAVE
REALLY TAPERED OFF. NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
SEVERAL UPDATES WERE MADE AS OF EARLY THIS EVENING.
FIRST, THE BLOWING DUST WARNING IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY IS
BEING ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME. CONDITIONS HAVE GREATLY
IMPROVED IN THIS AREA AS WINDS DECREASED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN IS ALSO GOING TO BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.
THE NEXT AREA OF DUST IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A COLD
FRONT, OVERSPREADING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND ENTERING THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. VISIBILITIES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED
FROM OVER 6 MILES TO A MILE OR LESS AS THIS BATCH OF DUST
ARRIVES, WITH KGFK GOING FROM 10 SM TO 2 SM VISIBILITY OVER THE
PAST 20 MINUTES. THEREFORE, THE BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 10 PM FOR NORTHEASTERN ND AND THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THE BIG QUESTIONS AS WE GO INTO
TONIGHT ARE 1) HOW STRONG THE WINDS REMAIN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES AND 2) HOW MUCH BLOWING DUST CONTINUES. NEITHER OF
THESE QUESTIONS ARE CLEAR CUT, AS THE STRONGEST CAA IS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION RIGHT NOW (WHICH WOULD FAVOR WINDS
DECREASING A BIT LATER), AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TO MIX
DOWN DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET (WHICH IS A POOR TIME FOR
MAX MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO OCCUR). IF WE ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO
THESE WINDS OVERNIGHT, THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE BLOWING DUST
CONTINUES TO SOME DEGREE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THESE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED AS WE GO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS TO
DETERMINE HOW TO HANDLE HEADLINES FROM HERE.
AND BRIEFLY - A FEW GUSTS UPSTREAM IN RUGBY AND ROLLA HAVE
BREACHED HIGH WIND CRITERIA. AS OF RIGHT NOW, HEADING INTO THE
LESS DIURNALLY FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY TO MIX THOSE HIGHER GUSTS
DOWN, THERE ARE NO PLANS TO CHANGE WIND HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
STRONG UPPER LOW ROTATING OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDING DOWN
INTO EASTERN ND MOVING OFF INTO MN. PRESSURE GRADIENT IN OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES IS STARTING TO RELAX JUST A BIT AS THE TROUGH
AXIS COMES IN, BUT PLENTY TIGHT IN NORTHWESTERN ND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE LOW. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE BRINGING OUR
BLOWING DUST AND DROPPING VIS CLOSE TO A QUARTER OF A MILE IN
SOME SPOTS WILL DECREASE A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
THROUGH AXIS, THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
WITH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE MIXING ALL
THE WAY UP TO 700MB, AND ALTHOUGH THE JET IS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG, THERE IS PLENTY OF MOMENTUM TO MIX DOWN. WINDS AT LEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WILL PICK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH PROBABILITIES OF WIND GUSTS OVER 40
MPH AT 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 AND 80 TO 100 PERCENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
WHILE DEFINITELY COULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF BLOWING DUST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, THIS TIME FROM THE WEST INSTEAD OF THE
SOUTH, CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE AND HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL
GO IS UNCERTAIN. MOST LIKELY WILL BE EXPANDING THE BLOWING DUST
ADVISORY INTO DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND UPPER SHEYENNE IN ADDITION
TO THE RRV THROUGH 00Z AS THE WEST WINDS START COMING IN THIS
EVENING. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF ANY MORE DUST PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED
BEYOND THAT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE WEST WINDS WILL BRING
EVEN LOWER RHS, AS CURRENT VALUES ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE BIT OF RECOVERY TONIGHT AS RH VALUES COME UP
INTO THE 40 AND 50S, BUT FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HIGH. AFTERNOON
RH VALUES IN ALL OF OUR AREA SHOULD GET DOWN TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 25 MPH EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE WIND
ADVISORY AREA. THUS, EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO ALL OF OUR
COUNTIES FROM NOW UNTIL 9 PM TOMORROW.
WILL FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE WIND ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP FOR SUNDAY WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING
OUT. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW SEEMS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER SD/MN/WI
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH BETTER MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA THAN THE
CURRENT SYSTEM. THE ECMWF EFI HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION, AND NBM HAS A OVER 60 PERCENT CHANCE CWA-WIDE FOR
OVER A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THERE IS EVEN 50 TO 60
PERCENT CHANCE OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN BY 06Z MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN. SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME INSTABILITY CREEPING INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH OTHERS KEEP
EVEN ELEVATED CAPE UNDER 500 J/KG. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
THOUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THAT DAY.
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY
AGAIN BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING DOWN AGAIN BACK
DOWN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES, WITH A FEW MINOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
AVIATION IMPACTS FROM BLDU AND HIGH WINDS WILL REMAIN AT THE
FOREFRONT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING. AS THEY DO, BLDU WILL OCCUR
AGAIN AT KDVL, KGFK, KFAR AND KTVF. WHILE PREDICTABILITY IN THE
WIND FORECAST IS HIGH, PREDICTABILITY IN THE SEVERITY OF BLDU
REMAINS MUCH LESS SO. THEREFORE, THIS SET OF TAFS TAKES A
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH, HIGHLIGHTING THE MOST LIKELY
PERIOD OF POOR IFR VISIBILITY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
MUCH AS WE SAW TODAY (THURSDAY), BLDU MAY OCCASIONALLY BECOME
MORE SEVERE AND REDUCE VISIBILITY FURTHER. VISIBILITY WILL
IMPROVE AS WINDS DECREASE FRIDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-027.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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