614
FXUS63 KFGF 181930
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL FEW HUNDREDTHS TO TWO TENTHS
OF AN INCH ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA.
- OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT, AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA TOMORROW NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO SD.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STARTING TO MOVE IN AROUND THE VALLEY CITY AREA. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THEN OFF INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW, WITH SOUTHERN
VORTICITY LOBE STILL DOWN NEAR UT AND NV. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGH PRESSURE DOWN INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RETURN QUICKLY BACK TO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SPLIT
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY, BUT STARTS TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LOT OF
VARIATION IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INTO HOW EXACTLY THE TROUGH
COMES OUT AND IF THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. BLENDED
SOLUTION OF SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEEM
REASONABLE.
..RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE AFTER. ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEEING AT LEAST 0.01
OF RAIN, AND THERE IS A 50 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
0.10 INCHES MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO WESTERN MN.
..TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S TONIGHT
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850MB AND EVEN 925MB TEMPS
IN SOME AREAS DOWN BELOW 0 C TONIGHT. WHILE SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF MIXING FROM
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE COLD BY TOMORROW
MORNING. NBM HAS PROBABILITIES 80 PERCENT AND HIGHER FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GET BELOW 36 DEGREES, AND EVEN THE LESS BULLISH
HREF HAS 40 TO 50 PERCENT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND DO NOT THINK
WE WILL GET DOWN AS LOW AS THE BASE NBM HAD US, SO TWEAKED LOWS
UP A BIT. WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE 32, BUT EVEN WITH NOT MUCH ACTUAL
FROST OCCURRING THE 33 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES TO SENSITIVE PLANTS. WENT AHEAD
AND MATCHED NEIGHBORS FOR A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. IT DOES LOOK
TO CLEAR OUT AND GO LIGHT FOR WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT, SO BETTER
CHANCES FOR FREEZE AND FROST LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THERE
WILL BE NOT MUCH RECOVERY AS MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HAVE MOST AIRPORTS DOWN TO IFR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, THEN SOME RECOVERY TO MVFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. KEPT RAIN LIGHT AND 3-5SM AT THE LOWEST. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS IN SOME PLACES
WILL DROP OFF JUST A BIT OVERNIGHT, BUT THEN PICK UP AGAIN
BY MID-DAY TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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