956
FXUS63 KFGF 192315
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
615 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA (FROST ADVISORY) WITH TEMPERATURES WIDELY FALLING TO
THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PULL
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
ROCKIES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST SPLITS INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH, AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS VARY A BIT ON HOW EXACTLY THEY HANDLE IT AS IT MOVES
EAST. MOST SOLUTIONS DO PUSH THE TROUGH EAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. DETAILS
SUCH AS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THE TROUGH ARE
LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT ON BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
..FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST, AND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING,
AND DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SHOULD BE DOWN IN OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR
OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A 60 TO 90
PERCENT CHANCE OF 32 OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF EASTERN ND INTO
NORTHWESTERN MN. PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 32 ARE MUCH LOWER
FOR SOME REASON IN WEST CENTRAL MN FROM ELBOW LAKE UP TO DETROIT
LAKES, WITH CHANCES 20 PERCENT OR LESS.KEPT GRANT, OTTER TAIL,
AND WESTERN BECKER AS FROST ADVISORY BUT HAVE THE REST OF THE
CWA IN A FREEZE WARNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS EVENING WITH THE REMAINING
IMPACTED SITES REACHING VFR BY 9PM. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT
BY MIDNIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 5-10KTS BY 7-10AM FROM THE
SOUTH. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 25-30KTS IN DVL BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE IN OVER 30KTS. THERE IS A LOW 20% CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT IN TVF FROM 08Z TO 13Z BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE GUIDANCE
BE A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT BEFORE ADDING IT TO THE TAF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-028-029-032.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ027-030-
031-040.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT
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