859
FXUS63 KFGF 210430
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY, MAINLY
ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH OVERALL LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SHALLOW UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE OUR REGION'S
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRIOR TO THIS
OCCURRING, PRESENTLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LINGERING DRY FUELS
CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.
INTO NEXT WEEK, FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY AMID
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE OVERALL TEMPERATURE TREND, ALLOWING MORE
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ACROSS OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE
FOR INSTABILITY AND SOME MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION, HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
(SHOULD THEY OCCUR), AS WELL AS LIMITED CHANCE FOR MORE ROBUST
FORCING ALOFT TO SPARK CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR
DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IGNITED BY OTHER
SOURCES OF FORCING LIKE SURFACE/TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
FORCING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS LIKE
LOCATION AND TIMING VERY LOW.
..FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN LEE SURFACE TROUGHING IN
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TODAY, TONIGHT, AND THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, GENERALLY
AROUND 15-30 MPH. GUSTS WILL BE MORE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAMP UP QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXES INTO THE
RESIDUAL OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET.
THURSDAY'S RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S PERCENT,
WITH UPPER 20S NEAR CENTRAL MN. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE RH VALUES
IN THE UPPER 20S ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF MN INTO
RED RIVER VALLEY.
OVERLAP OF HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE TO
SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HERE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN, WITH VFR CU (6000-10000FT AGL)
PRIMARILY DURING DAYTIME/PEAK HEATING PERIODS. THERE ARE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND AND SO FAR HAVE BEEN
REMAINING NORTHWEST OF KDVL. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE (20%)
FOR ONE OF THESE SHOWERS TO PASS NEAR KDVL THROUGH 12Z.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 12KT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AT TIMES
MAINLY IN EASTERN ND AND KTVF DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD THURSDAY.
THE CHANCES FOR WIND GUSTS 30KT OR HIGHER IS STILL LOW AT THIS
TIME. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALREADY BUILDING ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
FAR NORTHWEST MN (KTVF). THIS WILL RESULT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(30-40KT)
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
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