829
FXUS63 KFGF 211136
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY, MAINLY
ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH OVERALL LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA TODAY. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO START IN THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SHALLOW UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT WILL INFLUENCE OUR REGION'S
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRIOR TO THIS
OCCURRING, PRESENTLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LINGERING DRY FUELS
CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY.
INTO NEXT WEEK, FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY AMID
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE OVERALL TEMPERATURE TREND, ALLOWING MORE
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ACROSS OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE
FOR INSTABILITY AND SOME MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION, HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
(SHOULD THEY OCCUR), AS WELL AS LIMITED CHANCE FOR MORE ROBUST
FORCING ALOFT TO SPARK CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR
DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IGNITED BY OTHER
SOURCES OF FORCING LIKE SURFACE/TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
FORCING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS LIKE
LOCATION AND TIMING VERY LOW.
..FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN LEE SURFACE TROUGHING IN
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED TODAY, TONIGHT, AND THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND MIXING WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT OVERLY STRONG, GENERALLY
AROUND 15-30 MPH. GUSTS WILL BE MORE INTERMITTENT TONIGHT
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
RAMP UP QUICKLY IN THE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXES INTO THE
RESIDUAL OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET.
THURSDAY'S RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S PERCENT,
WITH UPPER 20S NEAR CENTRAL MN. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE RH VALUES
IN THE UPPER 20S ARE MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE REST OF MN INTO
RED RIVER VALLEY.
OVERLAP OF HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES CURRENTLY LOOKS
TO BE WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH AROUND A 20% CHANCE TO
SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HERE LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
ALL SITES. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE THIS MORNING AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS PRESENT A LLWS RISK AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KBJI. THIS
RISK WILL DIMINISH AS MIXING BRINGS WINDS INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST PREVAILING WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD, GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ONCE MORE HEADING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...LYNCH
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