506
FXUS63 KFGF 011200
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEEK AHEAD. SHOWER AND T-STORM CHANCES SPREAD EAST
TUESDAY LATE INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
ONE MAIN BAND OF RAIN IS LIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST THRU THE AREA
NOW IN FAR NE ND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF GRAND FORKS.
SINCE 06Z THIS RAIN BAND HAS PUT DOWN UPWARDS OF 0.50 TO 0.80
RAINFALL LANGDON THRU ST THOMAS TO ALVARADO TO WEST OF FOSSTON.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF THIS MAIN BAND BUT MORE ISOLATED.
CLEARING IS WORKING NORTHEAST GRADUALLY THRU CENTRAL ND
ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND DRIER MID LEVEL
AIRMASS WORKING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ANTICIPATION IS
THAT MAIN PRECIP CHANCES IN NE ND AND NW MN IS THIS MORNING BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CHANCES INTO THE AFTN.
UPDATED GRAPHICS FOR THE DAY 2 (TUES) AND DAY 3 (WED) SLIGHT
SEVERE RISK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WITH WEAK THUNDERSTORMS NOW STARTING TO MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE CASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH WEAK THUNDERSTORMS LIABLE
TO SPREAD ELSEWHERE IN OUR REGION, BUT STILL LOW IN COVERAGE
(MORE ISOLATED). OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND CLOUDY SKIES
DOMINATE THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH
THE AXIS OF H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES DRIFTING EASTWARD. AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL
INFLUENCE THE H5 FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
TRANSLATES INTO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE H5 LOW. WEAK UPPER FLOW PREVAILS ALL
WEEK, WHICH WILL SERVE TO KEEP US IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
HEADING INTO MID WEEK. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BUT SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER AS THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO SOUTHERN
MANITOBA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, A MENTION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS JUSTIFIED DUE TO BETTER
FORCING AND RELATIVELY STRONG INSTABILITY. HEADING INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS ARE VALID, BUT WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LOW EXITS TO THE
EAST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONFIRMS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
TIMING, WITH SCENARIOS INCLUDING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY: WESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
IN PLACE JUST WEST OF THE CWA, BUT WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS WILL
BE ALONG AN AXIS THAT STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING NEARLY ZONAL BY MID WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS
NEARLY EACH DAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, STORM MODE LOOKS TO START WITH SUPERCELLS IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, THEN TRANSITION TO MORE OF A HYBRID CLUSTER SETUP
AS IT MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
MIX BAG OF CONDITIONS TO START TODAY WITH IFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS
OVER NORTHEAST ND AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN RRV. VFR CONDITIONS
ELSEHWERE WITH MOSTLY MID CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL MIX OUT AND
BECOME MVFR AND THEN VFR GOING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN NE
ND. LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS THOUGH INTO TONIGHT, SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST 5 TO 8 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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