204
FXUS63 KFGF 021228
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
728 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
FROM LOOKING OVER MODEL DATA IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN REGION FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE
WARM TEMPERATURES WHERE THE HIGHEST MOST UNSTABLE AND SURFACE
CAPE VALUES WILL BE. PLUS ALSO A 50-60 KT 500 MB JET WILL ROTATE
NORTH AROUND THE SASKATCHEWAN UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN ND INTO
SOUTHWEST MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS
WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE DUE TO THIS 500 MB JET IN NORTH CENTRAL
ND EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD BE WEST OF THE FCST AREA.
FLOW ALOFT IS NEARLY SOUTH TO NORTH, SLIGHT EAST ADVANCEMENT,
SO STORMS WILL TEND TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA AND UNLESS
STORMS CAN BECOME MORE DISCRETE AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS IT COULD BE.
T-STORM CHANCE ENTERS DVL BASIN MID AFTERNOON AND THEN ONLY
GRADUALLY SPREADS EAST AS THE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE NNE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS THE H5 RIDGE
AXIS FLATTENS AND MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST. A CUT OFF LOW REMAINS IN
PLACE IN EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL BE DRIFTING SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE A
SOURCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE MERGING WITH THE H5 FLOW AND MOVING EASTWARD LATE THIS WEEK.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH IMPACT AREAS DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES. MOVING INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. TIMING
REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY ONWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON SATURDAY, WITH A RETURN TO POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS HEADING INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. AS THIS AXIS MOVES EAST, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP STARTING DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY SHOWING STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AS WELL
AS MLCAPE IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE. LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR,
HOWEVER, WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY. AS STORMS
FORM AND MOVE TO THE EAST, THEY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
WITH MUCH LOWER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, THUS POTENTIALLY LIMITING THE
EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL SCENARIOS ARE
POSSIBLE, WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY
SETS UP DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCES EXIST
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. STORM
MODE CURRENTLY FAVORS SUPERCELLS AND/OR HYBRID CLUSTERS, WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, THE H5 UPPER LOW MOVES SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO
THE EAST, THUS BRINGING OUR AXIS OF INSTABILITY FURTHER INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. WHERE IT ENDS UP WILL DEPEND ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS;
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BOUNDARY PUSHING TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SERVE TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT AND FORCING, FURTHER SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INITIATION TIMING IS ALSO A BIT UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, MAINLY BECAUSE THERE COULD BE REMNANT SHOWERS ONGOING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS AS MLCAPE CLIMBS TO
NEAR 2000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN STRONG. LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY ONCE MORE; HOWEVER, BETTER
FORCING IS EXPECTED AS THE REINFORCING BOUNDARY PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENT STORM MODE
FAVORS HYBRID CLUSTERS, FOLLOWED BY THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH
INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR QLCS. ONCE MORE, SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ALL
HAZARDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
DVL TAF SITE WILL BE MOST IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS MID
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. IT WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME FOR
STORM CHANCES TO REACH GFK AIRPORT AND MAY HOLD OFF TIL WELL
PAST 03Z IF NOT LATER. REST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO NOT SEE MUCH
TIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF
OUR SYSTEM TODAY WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND 10-20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WITHIN THE RRV.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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