199
FXUS63 KFGF 030438
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
INSTABILITY HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY OVER THIS FA. THEREFORE,
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #270 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT
10 PM CDT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME INSTABILITY AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET, SUB SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EVIDENT OVER THE
PAST HOUR AS RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ON THE NOSE OF
THE JET ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BACK INTO CENTRAL ND. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DUE TO THE MEAGER INSTABILITY AND A LACK OF
SHEAR, THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB SEVERE.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO WEDNESDAYS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. INCOMING 0Z CAMS SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF SCENARIOS AT
THIS TIME. MANY OF THESE CAMS ARE FAILING TO PRODUCE THE
CURRENT, ONGOING SUB SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS AND TO OUR WEST.
THEREFORE, PREDICTABILITY IN HOW WEDNESDAY PLAYS OUT REMAINS
LOW, AND EVENTUAL SEVERE COVERAGE WILL HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CLEARS ALLOWING INSTABILITY TO BUILD BACK
IN, WHERE/IF BOUNDARIES ARE LEFT OVER ETC. THESE VARIABLES WILL
DETERMINE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF THREATS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING,
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS MOVING ACROSS GRIGGS AND INTO STEELE
AND EVENTUALLY GRAND FORKS COUNTY. AT THIS TIME, STORMS ARE
STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION, BUT STILL HAVE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
AS SUCH, THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
INCLUDE GRAND FORKS COUNTY, GRIGGS COUNTY, AND TRAILL COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN IS TRAINING ACROSS PARTS OF PEMBINA
AND WALSH COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW, WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING EVERY SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL PUSH INTO THE CWA BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACTIVE, WITH ANOTHER ROUND TOMORROW. THE UPPER SYSTEM
FINALLY STARTS TO PULL EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON
FRIDAY, BUT THEN UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AGAIN FOR THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK, SO WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND CHANCES FOR
A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN INCREASE. DEVIL IS IN THE
DETAILS.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL IN NORTHEASTERN ND TONIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS IN EASTERN ND, AND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 80S. A FAIR AMOUNT OF CUMULUS
EXTENDING FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UP INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE HAS 2500 J/KG OF ML CAPE, AND EVEN
HIGHER SURFACE BASED VALUES. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY
WEAK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2, BUT AROUND 35 TO 40 KTS WAS ENOUGH TO
GET A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS GOING THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING OFF
INTO CANADA. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT ARE STILL WELL
TO OUR WEST, WITH SOME MODEST CONVECTION SO FAR. MANY OF THE
CAMS HAVE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY IN THAT AREA INCREASING IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH FITS THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION OF
HIGH INSTABILITY. THE STORMS OUT WEST SHOULD BECOME LINEAR AS
THEY MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
THE 0-3KM SHEAR IN CASE THE LINE BECOME PERPENDICULAR TO THE
SHEAR VECTOR AND GET A BRIEF TORNADO SPIN-UP. HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW, AS THERE
WILL BE SOME TRAINING AS THE UPPER FLOW LINES UP NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH 1.2 INCHES OF PWATS, BACKBUILDING
STORMS COULD BECOME A PROBLEM EVEN WITH OUR RECENT FAIRLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY
WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING TOMORROW
MORNING NEAR THE RED RIVER, SO THAT MAY HAVE A BIT OF AN IMPACT
ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE CAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG IN SOUTHEASTERN ND, AND DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE A BIT BETTER FURTHER SOUTH THAN TODAY
WITH 30-40 KTS. CIPS AND MACHINE LEARNING BOTH HAVE SOME 15
PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE IMPACTS. HREF PROBABILITIES FOR
UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS HAVE A BULLSEYE OVER SD, BUT OVER 70
PERCENT CHANCE FOR 4 HOUR MAX UH TRACKS NOSING INTO RANSOM AND
SARGENT COUNTIES. MAIN THREAT WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL RRV SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. LARGE HAIL OVER
2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A TORNADO SPIN UP
OR SOME DAMAGING WIND.
AVIATION /04Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING IMPACTS TO MOST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD, BUT THE EXACT TIMING AND DURATION OF THEM
REMAINS UNKNOWN. STARTING TONIGHT, THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECASTED
AT KGFK, KDVL AND KTVF. PREDICABILITY IN THIS OCCURING IS HIGH.
THEREAFTER, THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY BREAK UP, LEAVING US
UNDER VFR CEILINGS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THEIR EVOLUTION REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AS HOW LONG
STORMS TONIGHT LINGER WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW AND WHERE
THIS NEXT ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPS. PROB30S WERE ADDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS DURING THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THIS ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, STORMS
SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER, ESPEICALLY AT NORTH DAKOTA TERMINALS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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