417
FXUS63 KFGF 041312
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
812 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TODAY. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- HEAT RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
AREAS OF RADIATIONAL FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR AREA. WEBCAMS
AROUND THE AREAS THAT ARE SEEING FOG REVEAL FOG IS QUITE SHALLOW
AND NOT DENSE (OR AT LEAST NOT WIDESPREAD DENSE). FOG SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING.
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL LINGERS SOME WEAK INSTABILTY AND MOISTURE
OVER OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MN. THIS COULD HELP WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK, NON-
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AS THE ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME
FAR LESS SUPPORTIVE LATE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. RAINFALL RATES WITHIN HEAVIER STORMS ARE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING, AND THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW REPORTS NEAR LIDGERWOOD AS WELL AS NORTHERN PARTS OF
GRAND FORKS. WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, HOWEVER, BRIEF STREET FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN, MAINLY IN URBAN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ROTATE OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN, EVENTUALLY PULLING INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT.
THE SLOW FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL HELP MOVE
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS OFF INTO MN
OVERNIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF INTO ONTARIO
TOMORROW, WITH MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING A WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER. BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE WELL
TO OUR SOUTH THANKS TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO
EASTERN MN INTO SD. COULD SEE SOME EDGES OF CONVECTION STRAYING
INTO OUR FAR SOUTH TOMORROW, BUT THINK MOST OF THE SEVERE RISK
WILL BE IN SD AND MN. SIMILAR STORY ON FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TRAILING BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER LOW, BUT MOST OF THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK
INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND MOVES A BIT EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES AND SOME INSTABILITY RETURNING. A WARM
AND ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY, ALTHOUGH MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO RESOLVE AT THIS POINT.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A WEAK SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
ND, WITH SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING TOWARDS
SOUTHEASTERN ND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS BEHIND THE SURFACE
TROUGH AXIS, BUT COULD SEE SOMETHING POP IN THE WARMER AIR
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. WITH THE FORCING MOVING INTO 1000-1500
J/KG OF ML CAPE AND SOME 30 KTS OF SHEAR, EXPECT SOME
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST. INSTABILITY IS NOT
QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY WITH CLOUDS AND RECENT RAINFALL, BUT
THERE IS SOME CLEARING ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTINUE. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A
BIT ON THE TORNADO THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ALTHOUGH CAMS LIKE THE HRRR STILL TRY AND DEVELOP SOME RANDOM
SUPERCELLS BEFORE 00Z. BY THE TIME THE TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO OUR AREA, THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF STORMS
BECOMING LINEAR, ALTHOUGH A FEW MODELS KEEP CELLS FAIRLY
DISCRETE. STILL GETTING SOME 70 PERCENT PROBABILITIES OF STRONG
UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS NOSING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES, AND SEVERE IS POSSIBLE EVEN AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DOWN A BIT WITH THE TORNADO THREAT.
..HEAT INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK NORTH AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURNING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF EFI HAS 70
TO 80 PERCENTILE SIGNAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AND BY
SUNDAY THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF OVER 90 DEGREES IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ARE OVER 60 PERCENT. DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S, SO HEAT INDEX DOESN'T LOOK TOO BAD YET BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SOME OF THE OTHER HEAT RISK INDICIES ARE
CREEPING UPWARD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 810 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 20Z-00Z IN
SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST-CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST, UP TO 10KT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/LYNCH
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ
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