290
FXUS63 KFGF 051731
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, RED RIVER VALLEY, INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WHILE SEVERE IS NOT ANTICIPATED, STORMS MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH.
- MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT,
AS WELL AS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS SUNDAY, AND MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
GETTING A FEW MORE CUMULUS TOWERS SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE,
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FARGO AND SOUTHEASTERN ND
SHORTLY ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ONLY A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE, BUT EXPECTING A BIT MORE
INTENSITY AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVE THROUGH. SPC MESO PAGE HAS ML CAPE
GETTING UP TO 1500 J/KG IN WEST CENTRAL MN AND SOME EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME STRONGER CELLS AS
THE AFTERNOON GOES ON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 744 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARD SOUTHEAST ND THROUGH MID MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THESE STORMS SURVIVING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING, INSTABILITY GROWS AND CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND 2 PM ALLOWING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP. RELATIVELY BEST CHANCE (40%) FOR
CONVECTION EXISTS IN EASTERN ND, RED RIVER VALLEY, AND WEST-
CENTRAL MN. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CEASE, AROUND 8 PM. WHILE TODAY'S STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO
BE SEVERE, A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
TO 40 MPH. LOCALIZED HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS ALSO
ANTICIPATED UNDER STORMS.
LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BRING HOT TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION. THIS WILL INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED
IMPACTS SUNDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY,
POTENTIALLY LONGER. THIS ALSO BRINGS CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY INTO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW STILL SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA, AND WILL PUSH
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT, LEAVING NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. A
STRONGER TRAILING SHORTWAVE TOMORROW. BY SATURDAY, UPPER RIDGING
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BETTER INSTABILITY STARTING TO RETURN.
ON SUNDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETS UP AND CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO COME OUT IN THIS PRETTY ACTIVE PATTERN.
AS OF NOW THE MODELS ARE CLUSTERING AROUND TIMING OF ONE DECENT
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND ANOTHER
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW, BUT IT DOES
LOOK LIKE A WARM AND RELATIVELY STORMY PERIOD AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK.
..SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MAIN FRONT IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WITH ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY FROM NEAR HALLOCK TO VALLEY CITY. BOTH BOUNDARIES
HAVE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING ALONG THEM, WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN
BOUNDARY LOOKING A BIT MORE ROBUST ON SATELLITE WITH SOME HINTS
OF ICING AT THE TOPS. THAT AREA HAS BETTER INSTABILITY WITH OVER
1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE AND 30 KTS OF SHEAR, SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AND EYE ON DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER INSTABILITY AS WELL AS BETTER
FORCING FURTHER SOUTH INTO SD AND THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN SOME
FAIRLY STRONG CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. MOST OF THE CAMS HAVE
SOME CONSOLIDATION INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX, WHICH THEN
PUSHES EAST THROUGH NORTHERN SD INTO MN LATER TONIGHT. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, IN
CASE PARTS OF THAT CONVECTION MOVE INTO ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL COME THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT AGAIN THE
AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION IS UNCERTAIN AND SHEAR IS PRETTY WEAK.
FOR NOW JUST THINK WE WILL BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RATHER THAN SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING THIS WEEKEND AS WE HAVE
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BRINGING BETTER MOISTURE. UPPER RIDGING
SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR WEST, BUT
BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST AND MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE A DECENT SHORTWAVE COMING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. TIMING OF ALL THESE SHORTWAVES IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT CWASP IS UP INTO THE 50S BY 06Z MONDAY,
SO HAVE AT LEAST SOME CHANCES FOR SEVERE. ANOTHER RELATIVELY
HIGHER PERIOD OF CWASP VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT
SPREAD AMONG THE ENSEMBLES FOR CAPE IS ALSO VERY HIGH, AROUND
1000 J/KG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOME MEMBERS. PREDICTABILITY TOO
LOW TO START ANY SPECIFIC MESSAGING AT THIS POINT, BUT PATTERN
DEFINITELY LOOKS ACTIVE.
..HEAT OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
WEEKEND, THERE IS A 60 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY TO CLIMB ABOVE 90 DEGREES. DEW POINTS
ARE ALSO ON THE RISE, AND ALTHOUGH APPARENT T VALUES ARE STILL
BELOW 100, THE HEAT RISK AND WBGT VALUES ON ON THE RISE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT MESSAGING OVER THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AT ALL SITES. BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE
KFAR AREA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, SO HAVE SOME VCSH AND
PREVAILING RAIN FOR A SHORT PERIOD. LESS CERTAINTY WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP. HAVE PROB30S DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING INDICATING CONVECTION FOR ALL
BUT KDVL AS CELLS ARE MOSTLY FIRING TO THE SOUTH OF THAT
AIRPORT. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR TAF
SITES BY 00Z. WINDS THAT ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHOULD STEADY
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW MORNING, STAYING MOSTLY BELOW
12 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ
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