614
FXUS63 KFGF 061959
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
259 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR HAIL AND TORNADOES.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FURTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT
WEEK.
..POTENTIAL HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. LOOKING AT DEW
POINTS, LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY;
HOWEVER, MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS PREVAIL WITHIN THE
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER IMPACTS TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SUNDAY EVENING: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL TRAVEL EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, APPROACHING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. AT THIS TIME,
THE MOST LIKELY MODE WILL FAVOR LINEAR AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF ANTECEDENT
SUPERCELLS THAT UNDERGO UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DRIVE INITIATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 2200 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG.
ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT RUNS OUT RATHER QUICKLY AS STORMS APPROACH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY, THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF STRONG
STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING
AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND A LOWER RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS 0-6 KM
SHEAR UPWARDS OF 45-50 KNOTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS STRONG HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. SBCAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS RANGES FROM 3000 J/KG TO 4000 J/KG, WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM MODE BOTH DAYS,
WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 26 KNOTS EXPECTED AT KDVL, KFAR, AND KGFK. THIS AXIS OF
HIGHER WIND SPEEDS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT, WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS ON SUNDAY. LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS DECOUPLE LATE THIS
EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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