391
FXUS63 KFGF 070450
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS SUNDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAT IMPACTS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR HAIL AND TORNADOES.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN PREVAILS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S TODAY AND SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN EXTENDING
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. FURTHER STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN
LATE NEXT WEEK.
..POTENTIAL HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S. LOOKING AT DEW
POINTS, LOW TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY;
HOWEVER, MID TO UPPER 60 DEGREE DEW POINTS PREVAIL WITHIN THE
VALLEY. AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN HOW MUCH CLOUD
COVER IMPACTS TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. WET BULB GLOBE VALUES WILL WIDELY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S. THIS WOULD SIGNIFY THAT INDIVIDUALS SHOULD
USE DISCRETION IF DOING STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TOMORROW, TAKE
FREQUENT BREAKS, AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SUNDAY EVENING: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL TRAVEL EAST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, APPROACHING
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING. AT THIS TIME,
THE MOST LIKELY MODE WILL FAVOR LINEAR AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, BUT WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF ANTECEDENT
SUPERCELLS THAT UNDERGO UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT. VERY STRONG LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL DRIVE INITIATION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WITH
CAPE VALUES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG.
ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT RUNS OUT RATHER QUICKLY AS STORMS APPROACH THE
RED RIVER VALLEY, THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF STRONG
STORMS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY NIGHT: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING
AND PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND A LOWER RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE DRIVEN BY STRONG MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS 0-6 KM
SHEAR UPWARDS OF 45-50 KNOTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS STRONG HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. SBCAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS RANGES FROM 3000 J/KG TO 4000 J/KG, WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS
VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORM MODE BOTH DAYS,
WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /05Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHILE SKIES REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH THE WINDS AND
NAMELY THE GUSTS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT TIMES. WINDS SE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES WITH GUSTS TOPPING 30KTS FOR DVL FROM
NEAR 11Z/12Z THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. FOR GFK AND FAR
GUSTS LOOK LIKELY TO TOP 30KTS FROM 15Z ONWARDS AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR TVF AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER UP THERE WITH
GUSTS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE 25-30KT RANGE.
THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF LLWS AS WELL ACROSS DVL AND MAYBE
GFK TONIGHT WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS DECOUPLED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...TT
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