657
FXUS63 KFGF 212328
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
628 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE CAPABLE OF HAIL TO 1 INCH
AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH IN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATES OVER OUR
REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER TROUGHS IN CANADA TODAY. THIS CONTINUES
TO KEEP OUR AREA UNDER SEASONABLY COOL (ALBEIT MILD AND
COMFORTABLE) TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO MONDAY. SOME INCREASING CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT SHOULD HELP LIMIT HOW LOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
DIP, ALTHOUGH COULD SEE SOME LOW 40S IN NORTHWEST MN AGAIN.
LUMBERING SYSTEM IN WESTERN ND MONDAY WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT RAIN
TO ENTER EASTERN ND AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, NEXT
APPRECIABLE/HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO
MINNESOTA. TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL DICTATE
HOW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS MAY BE. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO LINGER WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO BUILD WHICH WOULD BE ORGANIZED BY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR ALOFT. THIS INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE CAPABLE OF HAIL TO 1 INCH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
GETTING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
BUILD DEEPER INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROMOTE
TEMPERATURE TREND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE TO PERHAPS ABOVE AVERAGE.
IT IS STILL WORTH MENTIONING THAT EXTENDED RANGE ENSEMBLE AND
AI GUIDANCE MIGRATE THE AFOREMENTIONED ROCKIES' UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT UPPER JET MAX AT
THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
TROUGH. WITH PRECEDING UPPER RIDGING HELPING BUILD INSTABILITY
AND HEAT INTO THE REGION, IT IS REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THAT
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS NEXT
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO WESTERN ND AHEAD OF A
FRONT. PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 10KT OR LESS AT TAF SITES.
LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD (AFTER 21Z MONDAY) RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES START TO INCREASE OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND
TOWARDS KDVL, HOWEVER CHANCES ARE TOO LOW DURING THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD FOR INCLUSION (MUCH BETTER CHANCES MONDAY EVENING-MONDAY
NIGHT).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
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