633
FXUS63 KFGF 232331
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFS BALLS AND TORNADOES.
- GROWING SIGNAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE SYSTEM SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA HAS
BECOME OCCLUDED AND WILL VERY SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, AND THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE,
ALBEIT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.
.SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TODAY
WARM SECTOR/THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH CI ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTION OFF THE
BOUNDARY, ANTICIPATE DISCRETE MODE. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS (ALBEIT LOW TOPPED GIVEN
MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS
AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2 (ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE FOR
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES). SEVERE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE, LOWER FREEZING
LEVEL, AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO ANTICIPATE
TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. AI GUIDANCE
(NADOCAST AND STORM NET) BACK UP THIS THINKING.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT TIME HAS THE STRONGER DISCRETE LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON (1-3P) ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE VALLEY AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 6-7P. THERE SHOULD BE 2-5 STORMS
AT ANY GIVEN TIME. THIS IS THE PERIOD WHEN LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WILL BRING THE LARGEST HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SFC
LOW/UPPER LOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, ALTHOUGH MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERE POTENTIAL
THE SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS TYPICAL FOR PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
REGION WILL BE IN PLACE - AND CONCEPTUALLY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SUPPORTS SEVERE STORM OUTBREAKS. DETAILS ARE ALWAYS THE TRICKY PART,
ESPECIALLY WHERE INDIVIDUAL UPPER WAVES TRACK AND HOW FAR EAST THE
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY HOW AMPLIFIED THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE AND THIS WILL
INFLUENCE THOSE DETAILS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING,
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. KTVF AND KBJI HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THUS A CONTINUATION OF PROB30 INTO LATE
THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWER CEILINGS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...LYNCH
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