037
FXUS63 KFGF 240931
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
431 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GROWING SIGNAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 422 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
SURFACE LOW AND 500 MB WAS LOCATED RIGHT NEAR PEMBINA ND AT 09Z.
THESE LOWS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO NEAR BEMIDJI BY 18Z AND
THEN TOWARD DULUTH BY 00Z. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST WINDS AT THE
SFC WILL TURN NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THRU E ND/RRV INTO THE 12-22
KT RANGE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE 950 TO 800 MB LAYER WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
EARLY EVENING. WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THRU NW MN COULD SEE SOME
SCARY LOOKING CLOUDS TODAY / FUNNELS. MAYBE SMALL HAIL AS WELL.
MESSAGING FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE SAME,
BUT DID CHANGE LATE WEEKEND TO JUST WEEKEND AS DAY 4 (SATURDAY)
SPC 15PCT SEVERE DID MOVE A TAD EAST INTO WESTERN FCST AREA.
SUNDAY - MONDAY PERIOD LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHER SEVERE RISK BUT
THIS ALL DEPENDS ON POSITION OF UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES, JET THAT WILL BE
OVER THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BRING
SMALL HAIL TO PARTS OF THE AREA; HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. LOOK FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
50S OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE SYSTEM SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA HAS
BECOME OCCLUDED AND WILL VERY SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST/SOUTHEAST.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK, AND THEN TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING DEVELOPS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HOW THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE,
ALBEIT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN SMALLER SCALE FEATURES.
.SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TODAY
WARM SECTOR/THETA-E RIDGE WILL BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE VALLEY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH CI ANTICIPATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
BOUNDARY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED STORM MOTION OFF THE
BOUNDARY, ANTICIPATE DISCRETE MODE. ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS (ALBEIT LOW TOPPED GIVEN
MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG) GIVEN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS
AND EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2 (ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE FOR
STRONGER LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES). SEVERE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALLS
ANTICIPATED GIVEN STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH STRUCTURE, LOWER FREEZING
LEVEL, AND FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ALSO ANTICIPATE
TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS. AI GUIDANCE
(NADOCAST AND STORM NET) BACK UP THIS THINKING.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT TIME HAS THE STRONGER DISCRETE LOW
TOPPED SUPERCELL STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON (1-3P) ALONG
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE VALLEY AFFECTING MUCH OF NORTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH 6-7P. THERE SHOULD BE 2-5 STORMS
AT ANY GIVEN TIME. THIS IS THE PERIOD WHEN LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS WILL BRING THE LARGEST HAIL AND TORNADO THREAT. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SFC
LOW/UPPER LOW LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE NORTHERN
VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, ALTHOUGH MORE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERE POTENTIAL
THE SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS TYPICAL FOR PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
REGION WILL BE IN PLACE - AND CONCEPTUALLY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
SUPPORTS SEVERE STORM OUTBREAKS. DETAILS ARE ALWAYS THE TRICKY PART,
ESPECIALLY WHERE INDIVIDUAL UPPER WAVES TRACK AND HOW FAR EAST THE
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
EXACTLY HOW AMPLIFIED THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE AND THIS WILL
INFLUENCE THOSE DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
WIND DOWN ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, WITH KBJI POSSIBLY STILL
SEEING A FEW STORMS IN THE VICINITY. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MVFR TO IFR BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL THEN
PICK UP BY MID MORNING, WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...LYNCH
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