857
FXUS63 KFGF 241935
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY. RISK
OF SMALL HAIL AND POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS.
- GROWING SIGNAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGH WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTS CONTINUES TO ROTATE
OVER NORTHERN MN, BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST AND WE GET
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING IN. FLOW BECOMES NEAR ZONAL AS WE
MOVE INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AT THE SURFACE RETURNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WHILE THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
EXACTLY WHERE THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND TROUGH AXIS TO THE
WEST SETS UP, THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETTING UP. THAT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH.
...FUNNELS AND SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...
WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL ROTATING JUST TO OUR EAST AND PLENTY OF
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN. A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS ALSO AROUND UNDER THE SURFACE
TROUGH, AND THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER IS 2 TO 4 IN
PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWESTERN
MN. THERE HAS ALREADY BEEN ONE FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTED NEAR
GOODRIDGE, MN, AND MANY OF THE CELLS IN THE CLUSTER OVER
NORTHWESTERN MN ARE SHOWING SOME VERY WEAK ROTATION. ANY OF THE
UPDRAFTS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SOME FUNNELS OR EVEN A BRIEF
TOUCHDOWN, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY WEAK. HAVE THE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO COVER THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS.
WITH -20 C HEIGHTS FAIRLY LOW, SOME SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS. FUNNEL AND SMALL HAIL
THREAT WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER EARLY EVENING AS WE LOSE
HEATING AND THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES FURTHER EAST.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
WITH UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY, THE PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
COMING THROUGH. THE TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS STILL NOT
RESOLVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
LOOK POSSIBLE. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS WOULD MAKE IT SEEM
THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
SEVERE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN THAT NIGHT. CWASP
50TH PERCENTILE PROBABILITIES OF 60 OR MORE TRANSITION A BIT
FURTHER EAST FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MUCH WILL
DEPEND ON TIMING OF WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVES AND HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WE GET. PATTERN LOOKS ACTIVE BUT DETAILS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MVFR CEILINGS STARTING TO BREAK UP IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT OTHERS
ARE STAYING AROUND 1500 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER, AND MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INCREASE THE COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. SOME OF
THE SHOWERS COULD INTENSIFY AND PRODUCE LIGHTNING, SO HAVE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL BUT KDVL FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT, RISING FROM MVFR TO VFR
LATER THIS EVENING, WITH A MORE MID LEVEL DECK AS WE MOVE INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS DURING
THE SECOND HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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