982
FXUS63 KFGF 261731
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1231 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STARTING SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON IN
NORTHEAST ND AND EXPANDING EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
PERIODIC SEVERE STORM CHANCES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALL HAZARDS
ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PULL EASTWARD, LEAVING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE NW TO
W FLOW WILL BRING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, NEAR
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TODAY AND FURTHER SOUTH TOMORROW. WITH
CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 500 J/KG THINK BRIEF
DOWNPOURS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY HOWEVER, UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS SETS UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH VARIOUS WEAK
SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH. A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN SEEMS LIKELY HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK.
..SEVERE CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND TROUGHING IN THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
BRING WARM, MOIST AIR INTO OUR REGION. VARIOUS SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO COME OUT INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS, BUT TIMING OF EACH INDIVIDUAL IMPULSE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS
POINT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO OUR AREA ON
SATURDAY DURING THE DAY, WITH ONE SHORTWAVE NOT EXPECTED TO COME
OUT UNTIL LATE. CAPE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO NEAR 1500 J/KG, WITH DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AROUND 30
KTS. WITH THE FORCING NOT COMING OUT UNTIL LATER AND BETTER
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO THE WEST, THINK MUCH OF THE DAYTIME
HOURS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH LESS THAN 10 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. MAIN IMPACTS WILL COME LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT FORMS OVER EASTERN
MT GETS CLOSE TO OUR AREA. BIG QUESTION IS IF THAT COMPLEX WILL
BE SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. ELEVATED CAPE
AND SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT SATURDAY NIGHT, SO
DEFINITELY POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN. DEPENDING ON HOW
SATURDAY NIGHT PLAYS OUT, SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE EVEN
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH CAPE OVER 2000 J/KG
POSSIBLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 50 KT RANGE. THERE IS
ALSO THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS AT THAT POINT. MANY OF THE MODELS HAVE AN EVEN
STRONGER SURFACE LOW ARRIVING FOR MONDAY, AND THERE WILL STILL
BE A LOT OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH.
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF CONVECTION PLAY OUT,
BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACK TO BACK ROUNDS OF
SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME CUMULUS BUBBLING AROUND 4000-6000 FT
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY
SOUTH OF FARGO THAT WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD, IMPACTING KFAR AND
POSSIBLY KTVF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IN NORTHEASTERN ND AS SOME
DECAYING CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS NOT TOO HIGH SO WILL KEEP KDVL AND KGFK PROB30 FOR NOW. SOME
OF THE MODELS BRING SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KDVL AND KBJI LATE IN
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH OUR GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 20 KTS DROPPING OFF
OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE AGAIN AND GUSTS RETURN LATE IN
THE PERIOD, WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT
KDVL AND KFAR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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