436
FXUS63 KFGF 270247
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RISK FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS STARTING LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAT IMPACTS NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS
SOUTHEASTERN ND THROUGH NEAR ZONAL FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, AS AN UPPER RIDGE START AMPLIFYING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY TOMORROW. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCH EASTWARD DURING
THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN EVEN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES GETS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE WORK WEEK, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT ON UPPER HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BRING SOME SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
LOW AND CONCERN FOR SEVERE IS MINIMAL. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BE BRINGING MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THE MAIN
PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND. THE MORNING SHOWERS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN GONE LONG ENOUGH FOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
TO INCREASING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING, WITH UP
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND OVER 35 KTS EXPECTED. THINKING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE EAST INTO
OUR AREA AS A COMPLEX, WITH WINDS OVER 75 MPH POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH IF QLCS DEVELOPS CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF THE STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY
FURTHER EAST, OR START TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND MN. HREF SHOWS 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SEVERE IMPACTS SUCH AS UPDRAFT
HELICITY DIMINISH AND ONLY A FEW OF THE CAM RETAIN INTENSITY
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE A DECREASING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SUNDAY
MORNING THAT STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXACT
STORM MODE WILL DEPEND ON HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EVOLVES, BUT
FOR NOW IT SEEMS ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND AN EVEN STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
COME THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN WESTERN MN.
..HEAT FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE ECMWF
EFI SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM FOR HIGHS ABOVE 90
DEGREES ARE OVER 70 OR 80 PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA ON MONDAY, AND CHANCES ARE THAT HIGH AGAIN FOR OTHER DAYS
THAT WEEK. MAX WET BULB GLOBE VALUES ARE UP INTO THE HIGH AND
EXTREME RANGES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK, AND THE EXTENDED
RANGE OUTLOOKS CALL FOR PLENTY OF HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. WILL START MESSAGING HEAT IMPACTS IN OUR
PARTNER AND PUBLIC MESSAGING.
AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
GENERALLY VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR
AT BOTH KBJI AND KDVL LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A
FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE, MAINTAINED PROB30S AT KDVL, KGFK AND KTVF TO ACCOUNT
FOR RAIN CHANCES. NO ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, BEYOND THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT, A LINE OF STORMS FROM
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST, AND LIKELY
BRING AVIATION IMPACTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT
KDVL AT THE TAIL END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT FOCUS ON USING
PROB30S IN THE SHORTER TERM PRECLUDED ANY INCLUSION OF THEM AT
THAT RANGE IN THE TAF.
OUTSIDE OF CEILINGS, WINDS WILL INCREASE QUITE DRAMATICALLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 30 KNOTS OR STRONGER ARE FORECASTED
IN KFAR, KGFK AND KDVL. GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ON
SATURDAY. WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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