271
FXUS63 KFGF 271929
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
229 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RISK FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS STARTING LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAT IMPACTS NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM HAS LEAD TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
LOCATED IN THE 500 MB JETS LEFT EXIT REGION, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS DEVELOPING NEAR CARTER COUNTY, MT. WHILE MANY MILES AWAY,
THIS REGION WILL BE THE SEED FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA AND THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. OVERNIGHT, THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, BRINGING IMPACTS TO OUR FA TONIGHT. BEING
A LINEAR COMPLEX, DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
WESTERN TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS SUCH, ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISKS ARE IN THE
FORECAST FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOW THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE (OR
JUST AS IMPORTANTLY HOW THEY DONT EVOLVE) WILL DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE, MAGNITUDE AND HAZARD TYPE OF SEVERE WEATHER EACH
SUBSEQUENT DAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
A STRETCH OF WARM TO HOT WEATHER ACROSS THE FA. MONDAY IN PARTICULAR
LOOKS WARM, BEFORE A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON TUESDAY, AND THEN A BUILDING
RIDGE TO OUR EAST ALLOWS FOR HEAT TO BUILD IN SLOWLY EVERYDAY
THEREAFTER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
AMPLE LIFT IS PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE 500 MB JET OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS AREA
WILL BE WHERE STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR
SEGMENT, THEN TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THERE
IS GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN CAMS IN AN ARRIVAL TIME
AFTER 11PM CDT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. BY THIS POINT, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 1,000 TO 1,500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE, AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND OR JUST OVER 30 KNOTS. LOW
LEVEL FLOW ALSO LOOKS DECENT, WITH 0-3 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS. COMBINED, THE LINEAR COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST
WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHAT ITS SEVERITY WILL BE. DCAPE IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE (DUE TO A
SATURATED PROFILE), ON THE ORDER OF 700 TO 1000 J/KG. ADD IN
THE OVERNIGHT INVERSION, IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE, AND THEIR EASTWARD EXTENT. RIGHT NOW, THE
FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS IN
NORTHEASTERN ND, ESPECIALLY IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
IN ADDITION, A NOCTURNAL LLJ MAY KICK OFF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, BUT WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING 35 KNOTS AT TIMES, SEVERE HAIL CANNOT
COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO FORM IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IN
SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN.
SUNDAY BRINGS ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER. SATURDAYS
CONVECTION WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN HOW SUNDAYS THREAT EVOLVES.
RIGHT NOW, MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS LEFT OVER CONVECTION ONGOING
SUNDAY MORNING, CLEARING MIDDAY OR SO. A STRIPE OF HIGHER
INSTABILTY WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ND,
WITH AMPLE SHEAR AS 500 MB WINDS INCREASE OVERHEAD. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN IF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM
DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAKER FORCING, AND CAPPING IN
PLACE. A POTENTIAL SCENARIO IS THAT WE SEE NO SEVERE WEATHER AT
ALL UNTIL AFTER DARK WHEN THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTH WITH
ANOTHER LLJ. IN THIS CASE, HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
FINALLY, MONDAY. A FAIRLY POTENT SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN ND. AGAIN, LEFTOVER CONVECTION MONDAY
MORNING WILL DETERMINE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS BY
AFTERNOON. BASED ON SHEAR PROFILES, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE IF
WE CAN GET STORMS TO UTILIZE THIS ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL BE A
DAY TO MONITOR CLOSELY, BUT AT THIS RANGE, WITH EVEN SOME
SYNOPTIC DETAILS STILL UNCERTAIN, IT IS TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PIN
DOWN ANY MORE DETAILS.
..HEAT THIS WEEK
IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORMS, HEAT WILL BE A CONCERN HEADING INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BRING THE HIGHEST HEAT
INDICIES AS DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ARE ADVECTED INTO MUCH OF THE FA.
WE COOL DOWN A BIT ON TUESDAY, BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ELEVATED ALL WEEK, SLOWLY RISING
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, ARES IN
SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
SEEING HEAT ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS (HEAT INDICIES OF 100 DEGREES OR
HIGHER). IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
BARELY REACH CRITERIA, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THIS
AFTERNOON, SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE.
HOWEVER PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTS AT ANY ONE TAF SITE WERE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY PROB30S. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT, A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL BRING MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR
CEILINGS, AND A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
FORM AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX, ESPECIALLY AT KBJI, WHICH MAKES THE
TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE UNCERTAIN. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
LONG THIS ACTIVITY LINGERS. IN ADDITION, EVEN AFTER TS CLEARS,
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MIRED IN MVFR (A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW
POCKETS OF IFR AS WELL). ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
OF OTHER IMPORTANCE TO NOTE, WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL
GUST UP TO TO JUST OVER 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON
AT KFAR AND KGFK. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THE COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT MAY BRING HIGH WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT
KDVL AND KGFK, BUT TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY UNCERTAIN,
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND. THEREFORE, DID
NOT ADD A MENTION INTO THIS SET OF TAFS YET. IT IS LIKELY THAT
ONCE PREDICTABILITY INCREASES, A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER WINDS
FROM THE WEST WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TO A FEW TERMINALS FOR SOME
PERIOD OF TIME BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT KDVL
AND KGFK.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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