499
FXUS63 KFGF 131927
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
227 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- HEAT IMPACTS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH FURTHER IMPACTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
STRONG H5 RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND FLATTEN IN THE
COMING DAYS, KEEPING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION, FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES IN THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE. THE GENERAL DEFICIT IN RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY MAY ALLOW RAPID FIRE
SPREAD IN THE PRESENCE OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FURTHER FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
..DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TODAY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDICES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S IN MANY AREAS. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WILL ONCE MORE SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES UPWARDS OF 110-
115 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY SEEING A FEW HOURS BELOW 80 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY.
..LIMITED RELIEF FROM HEAT THIS WEEK
AS THE H5 RIDGE FLATTENS, TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES EXPECTED ONCE MORE ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE
MORE APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 200. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR BRINGS TEMPS DOWN
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, WITH AREA WIDE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER
90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOK
FOR A GRADUAL WIND SHIFT TO THE TO THE NORTHEAST AT KGFK, KDVL,
AND KTVF STARTING LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS AT KFAR AND KBJI ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS AT KTVF, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
MIX AND DIMINISH DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-054.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ038-039-
049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
013>017.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ002-003-
022>024-027>032-040.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ005-006-
008-009-016-017-023-024.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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