118
FXUS63 KFGF 141733
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING OFF AND ON ACROSS AREAS NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THESE ARE PRIMARILY ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND SHORT-LIVED. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT COOLER
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
HEADLINES AS ISSUED BY THE PREVIOUS EVENING SHIFT REMAIN
UNCHANGED. AS OF 6:45 AM, A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN MN,
PASSING RIGHT THROUGH GRAND FORKS. THIS WILL "COOL" HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA. HUMIDITY IS ALSO LOWER BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH
SHOULD MAKE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES A BIT MORE COMFORTABLE IN THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT, WHILE ALREADY PUSHING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH,
WILL SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER, LEAVING THE SOUTHERN FA HOT AND
MUGGY FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
STRONG H5 RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND FLATTEN IN THE
COMING DAYS, KEEPING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION, FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES IN THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE. THE GENERAL DEFICIT IN RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY MAY ALLOW RAPID FIRE
SPREAD IN THE PRESENCE OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FURTHER FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
..DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TODAY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDICES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S IN MANY AREAS. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WILL ONCE MORE SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES UPWARDS OF 110-
115 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY SEEING A FEW HOURS BELOW 80 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY.
..LIMITED RELIEF FROM HEAT THIS WEEK
AS THE H5 RIDGE FLATTENS, TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES EXPECTED ONCE MORE ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE
MORE APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 200. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR BRINGS TEMPS DOWN
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, WITH AREA WIDE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER
90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NORTH OF KTVF AS A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 7-12 KNOTS, BUT WITH A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AT KDVL. AS THE WIND SHIFTS AND INCREASES,
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF LLWS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001>003-015>017-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RAFFERTY/DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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