666
FXUS63 KFGF 151136
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
ALLOWING THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING TO DROP AT 10PM WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH
10PM THURSDAY AS PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WED/THUR SOUTH OF
HWY 2 WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WET BULB GLOBE WILL
CREEP OVER 80 CONTINUING THE HEAT IMPACTS FOR THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 200. HIGHS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES, WITH A SHARP GRADIENT AROUND THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR, THEN LOW TO MID 90S TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT REBOUND OF WARMER TEMPS FURTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WORK BACK INTO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
SERVE TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..HEAT IMPACTS THIS WEEK
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S TO BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE THESE HIGHER HEAT INDICES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL
RED RIVER VALLEY COULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S; HOWEVER, LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. IMPACTS FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO KTVF THROUGH ABOUT 14Z,
THEN TAPER OFF. THEREFORE, A PROB30 WAS ADDED INTO THE KTVF
TAF. CLOUDS AT ABOUT 5000 AGL SHOULD CLEAR AS WE GO THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THE ONE OTHER CONCERN INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
IS IF SMOKE PENETRATES AS FAR EAST AT KFAR AND/OR KBJI. AT THIS
TIME MAINTAINED FU AT KFAR, BUT DID NOT ADD IT ANYWHERE ELSE, AS
MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS LEAVE QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SMOKES EVENTUAL TRACK/INTENSITY/TIMING. WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON UP TO ABOUT 15 KNOTS WITH A
FEW GUSTS. FOLLOWING A DIURNAL TREND, WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET WITH ANY REMAINING GUSTS DROPPING OFF AND SUSTAINED
VALUES FALLING TO UNDER 10 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ024-028>030-038-
039-049-052-053.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ002-003-022>024-
027>032-040.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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