170
FXUS63 KFGF 151846
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
146 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
STATIONARY FRONT HOUSING HOT TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY HIGH
HUMIDITY IS NEAR THE I-94 / HWY 10 CORRIDORS. HEAT INDICES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S STILL EXPECTED HERE.
NORTH OF THE FRONT, RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
DEW POINTS/HUMIDITY IS OFFERING A REPRIEVE FROM RECENT HEAT.
THIS IS HELPED BY SOME CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
NEAR THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL MN, NEAR SURFACE WILDFIRE SMOKE IS
OBSERVED DEGRADING AIR QUALITY. THIS SMOKE MAY SPREAD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GRADUAL UPTICK IN
SMOKE SPREADING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
ALLOWING THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING TO DROP AT 10PM WITH A HEAT
ADVISORY GOING INTO EFFECT BEGINNING AT 10PM TONIGHT THROUGH
10PM THURSDAY AS PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WED/THUR SOUTH OF
HWY 2 WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND WET BULB GLOBE WILL
CREEP OVER 80 CONTINUING THE HEAT IMPACTS FOR THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN AND MOVE EAST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 200. HIGHS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 80 DEGREES, WITH A SHARP GRADIENT AROUND THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR, THEN LOW TO MID 90S TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT REBOUND OF WARMER TEMPS FURTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND INTO THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT
EACH AFTERNOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WORK BACK INTO THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, BUT WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF ANOTHER SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
SERVE TO BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..HEAT IMPACTS THIS WEEK
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE WARM THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. AFTERNOON TEMPS IN
THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S TO BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES TO SEE THESE HIGHER HEAT INDICES WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL
RED RIVER VALLEY COULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW 90S; HOWEVER, LOWER
DEW POINTS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRE SMOKE TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT,
INTO THURSDAY. INCLUDED A 6SM FU AT KBJI TO ANNOTATE WHEN SMOKE
COULD START TO IMPACT THE SITE, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
IN TIMING OF THIS - SMOKE COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS 06Z, OR AS
LATE AS BEYOND 12Z. CONFIDENCE IN SMOKE IMPACTING OTHER TAF
SITES LIKE KFAR, KTVF, AND KGFK IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE THIS
ISSUANCE.
OTHERWISE, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS REMAINING VFR THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST GENERALLY BETWEEN
6-15KT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDVL WHERE WINDS WILL GUST 20-29KT
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LESSENING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NDZ024-028>030-038-
039-049-052-053.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ002-003-022>024-
027>032-040.
UPDATE...CJ/TT
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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