383
FXUS63 KFGF 161938
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
238 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
- HEAT IMPACTS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO AFFECT AIR QUALITY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS FLATTENED/WEAKENED A BIT, BUT
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES ARE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION AND THEN
FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONGER SYNOPTIC SIGNALS FOR
RAINFALL/STORMS GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN, ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE FORCING COULD PROVIDE SCATTERED STORMS HERE OR THERE.
..SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING
INTERESTING SET UP IS DEVELOPING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING, WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRIPLE POINT ACROSS
NORTHCENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR 30-35 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO ORGANIZED STORMS. STORM
MODE EXPECTED TO BE DISCRETE GIVEN LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND LIMITED THREAT AREA. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
CONVECTIVE INITIATION 5-7P. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLULAR ALONG WITH ALL ASSOCIATED SUPERCELL HAZARDS
(HAIL, WIND GUSTS, TORNADO). REGARDING TORNADO POTENTIAL, THE
TRIPLE POINT PLUS ANY STORM THAT ANCHORS TO THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE INCREASED SRH FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH HOW THE EVENT WILL
EVOLVE AFTER INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH IN THESE SITUATIONS
STORM TIPSILY ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
MEANING THE THREAT AREA FOR THE SURFACED BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA - AND BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH WEAKENING TOWARD 11P OR SO. THE 1 OF 5
RISK FROM SPC IS BASED ON ANTICIPATED COVERAGE.
LATER INTO THE NIGHT, AN AREA OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORMING/WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING AN ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT).
..HEAT IMPACTS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SET UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH TEMPERATURES LOW-MID 70S TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW 90S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, HEAT IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. AFTER TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
(ALTHOUGH LIMITED HEAT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS).
..AIR QUALITY
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, SMOKE
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THAT SAID, FORECASTING WHERE
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL GO IS PRETTY DIFFICULT, AND AS THE FLOW
TURNS FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW, SMOKE COULD RETURN, ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE HOW IMPACTFUL IT WOULD BE IF IT DOES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SMOKE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN, LIMITING VISIBILITY AS
LOW AS 1-2 MILES IN SOME AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE VALLEY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT PUSHING THE SMOKE EAST.
THE OTHER AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES T-STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NE NORTH
DAKOTA THIS EVENING, MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST. COVERAGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN LIMITED AND AS SUCH WENT WITH A PROB 30 FOR KDVL AND NO
WHERE ELSE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ024-026>030-
038-039-049-052-053.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>003-029.
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...TG
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