683
FXUS63 KFGF 171740
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO AFFECT AIR QUALITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED MOSTLY EAST OF THE
FA. SMOKE IS ALSO RETURNING TO THE REGION, OVERSPREADING AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORNING AS DAYTIME MIXING
INCREASES. ALL OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS FLATTENED/WEAKENED A BIT, BUT
ADDITIONAL UPPER WAVES ARE ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE WEST OF THE REGION AND THEN
FLATTEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PROPAGATES THROUGH
CANADA, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY STRONGER SYNOPTIC SIGNALS FOR
RAINFALL/STORMS GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN, ALTHOUGH
MESOSCALE FORCING COULD PROVIDE SCATTERED STORMS HERE OR THERE.
..SEVERE RISK THIS EVENING
INTERESTING SET UP IS DEVELOPING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING, WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRIPLE POINT ACROSS
NORTHCENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. MLCAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR 30-35 KNOTS WILL LEAD TO ORGANIZED STORMS. STORM
MODE EXPECTED TO BE DISCRETE GIVEN LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING AND LIMITED THREAT AREA. CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES
CONVECTIVE INITIATION 5-7P. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLULAR ALONG WITH ALL ASSOCIATED SUPERCELL HAZARDS
(HAIL, WIND GUSTS, TORNADO). REGARDING TORNADO POTENTIAL, THE
TRIPLE POINT PLUS ANY STORM THAT ANCHORS TO THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD EXPERIENCE INCREASED SRH FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH HOW THE EVENT WILL
EVOLVE AFTER INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH IN THESE SITUATIONS
STORM TIPSILY ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY
MEANING THE THREAT AREA FOR THE SURFACED BASED SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA - AND BE MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH WEAKENING TOWARD 11P OR SO. THE 1 OF 5
RISK FROM SPC IS BASED ON ANTICIPATED COVERAGE.
LATER INTO THE NIGHT, AN AREA OF STRONG SYNOPTIC FORMING/WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING AN ELEVATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT TO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA (LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT).
..HEAT IMPACTS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SET UP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH TEMPERATURES LOW-MID 70S TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND
LOW 90S TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70F
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, HEAT IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. AFTER TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER
(ALTHOUGH LIMITED HEAT IMPACTS WILL REMAIN FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS).
..AIR QUALITY
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND THEN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT, SMOKE
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. THAT SAID, FORECASTING WHERE
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL GO IS PRETTY DIFFICULT, AND AS THE FLOW
TURNS FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW, SMOKE COULD RETURN, ALTHOUGH NOT
SURE HOW IMPACTFUL IT WOULD BE IF IT DOES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN VARIABLE ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN DUE TO A LINGERING LAYER OF STRATUS (GENERALLY
MVFR) AND SURFACE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES THAT MIXED TO THE SURFACE
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT (VIS GENERALLY 2-6 SM). THE STRATUS
IS STARTING TO LIFT AND BREAK UP FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST, AND
ALL GUIDANCE HAS VFR CEILINGS RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, THOUGH SATELLITE TRENDS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO LINGER LONGER IN MN THAN GUIDANCE INDICATES.
VISIBILITY IS MUCH HARDER TO ANTICIPATE AS SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE. THE THICKEST SMOKE IS IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE IFR VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED, HOWEVER AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST SMOKE IS THINNING
AND VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND BASED ON THAT TREND VFR
SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SMOKE MAKE CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION ALOFT AND OCCASIONALLY AT THE SURFACE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING AROUND 20KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, DECREASING EARLY EVENING
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...DJR
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