137
FXUS63 KFGF 021127
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOR HAZARD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. WINDS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST, BUT ARE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 7-12
MPH. OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKERS AND INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. OUR AREA IS STILL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
RIDGE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE
MEAN RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH LEE TROUGHING TO THE WEST DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT
STRONGER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW/SOUTHWEST CANADA. WE END UP WITH
A RELATIVELY HIGH SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES AS THE WARMER AIR MASS WILL
TEND TO ALIGN ALONG THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH IN CENTRAL ND NORTHWEST
NORTHEAST ND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MONDAY AS THE
MAIN TROUGH MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE WARMER AIR MASS TO THE
WEST WILL TEND TO BE 90+ WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR BRIEF ADVISORY
TYPE HEAT IMPACTS IN THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN (HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100 AND WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES 80+).
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES INCREASE SUNDAY RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THE WARM NOSE ALOFT IN THE 5-9KFT LAYER WILL TEND
TO LIMIT MIXING POTENTIAL AND HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 40
MPH ALONG/WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HIGHER TDS TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH ALSO LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (RH WOULD REMAIN 40-55%) WITH
LOWEST RH (30-35%) WHERE HRB VALUES REMAIN HIGHER IN ND.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY FOR
0.5"+ HIGHEST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN. THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY
STALLS OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND THE LARGER SCALE RIDGE BECOMES
FLATTENED, KEEPING OUR REGION IN EITHER NORTHWEST OR WESTERLY FLOW.
THIS ALLOWS FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND TOWARDS EITHER SIDE OF
SEASONAL RANGES (+/- 1 STANDARD DEVIATION OF AVERAGE). IT ALSO ALLOWS
FOR A LEAST CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK AS PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE EITHER FROM CANADA IN NW
FLOW OR FROM THE PACIFIC NW IN WESTERLY FLOW. THE MOST CONSISTENT
SIGNAL FOR THE NEXT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE FEATURES IS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THOUGH THERE REMAINS HIGH VARIABILITY
LOWERING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AND CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS.
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK SUNDAY NIGHT
INITIALLY CAPPING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION LOCALLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS A SIGNAL WITH CAMS AT
THIS RANGE FOR A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CONVERGENCE
ZONE/SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IN CENTRAL ND WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP TOWARDS OUR FAR NORTHWEST IN
THE EVENING HOURS (MARGINAL CAPE AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT). BETTER
SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ARRIVES LATE AS AT LEAST SOME PVA OCCURS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AND FRONT ARRIVAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING (GENERALLY 3-9AM). ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND
INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK MONDAY
INITIALLY THERE IS A LOWER RISK FOR ONGOING STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
HIGHLY ELEVATED AND MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
IMPACTS INITIALLY. THE MAIN RESULT OF ANY ONGOING CONVECTION
WOULD BE WHAT LINGERING IMPACT MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE ON
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. BETTER FORCING
WITH THE MAIN WAVE FAVORS THE NORTH WHILE THE COLD FRONT PASSING
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PLACES THE REGION OF BETTER BL MOISTURE
POOLING/INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
CLOUD COVER COULD DELAY INITIATION IN THE REGION WITH MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE CAPPING
MAY ALREADY BE PLAYING A ROLE IN LIMITING LOCAL INITIATION. THIS
IS EVEN MORE ACCOUNTING FOR THE SIGNAL FOR INCREASING SMOKE
ALOFT FROM THE PACIFIC NW ARRIVING WITH THE TROUGH.
THE PRESENCE OF BROADER FORCING/CONVERGENCE AND A WINDOW WHERE
GOOD INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT LEAST
CREATES A SCENARIO FOR SUPERCELLS OR MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE
CLUSTERS, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS MORNING. MID LEVEL
SMOKE IS POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND MIDDAY, ESPECIALLY AT KDVL.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON RANGING FROM 15-20 KNOTS, AND GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 30 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD; HOWEVER,
GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS FREQUENT OVERNIGHT. AS GUSTS TAPER OFF,
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD IMPACT KDVL, KGFK, AND KFAR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...LYNCH
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