352
FXUS63 KFGF 021936
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY, FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH SW
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AND SEVERE RISK) TO OUR REGION
MONDAY, BUT MAY ALSO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL SMOKE ALOFT AND POTENTIALLY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE LEVEL SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
TROUGH BECOMES A MORE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK AS IT STALLS AND DEEPENS IN CANADA, AND FLATTENS THE LARGER
SCALE RIDGING. THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN SEASONAL RANGES FOR
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK (+/1 1 STANDARD DEVIATION OF NORMAL), AND A
BREAK FROM THE MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 90+ RANGE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE TENDENCY FOR AT MOST VERY WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY OR WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW LOWERS PREDICTABILITY
FOR ANY PERIODS WHEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AND ANY
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AFTER MONDAY.
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
INITIALLY STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND THE LACK OF
ORGANIZED FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ARRIVES AS FORCING INCREASES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
WHILE A LLJ/ELEVATED WAA REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING (GENERALLY
6AM-10AM). ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
IF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO THICK OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ELEVATED STORMS
LINGER, SEVERE THREATS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL IN NATURE WITH
STRONGER CAPPING IN PLACE. HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS MORE CLEARING,
CAMS ARE SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR EML DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH STRONGLY SHEARED TURNING HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE TROUGH AND FRONT IN THAT
SCENARIO FOR THE CAP TO BE ERODED NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE, AND A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAMS DO SHOW THE
STRONGER UH TRACKS/SUPERCELL TYPE SIGNAL WITH SOME SHOWING BOWING
TYPE MCS CLUSTERS AND THIS REFLECTS THE HIGHER LEVEL SCENARIO THAT
IS CONDITIONAL ON BETTER SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT RELATED TO GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 30KT AT TIMES (BEST CHANCES AT
KGFK/KFAR THIS AFTERNOON). THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SURFACE
LEVEL SMOKE BRINGING VIS TO THE 5-6SM RANGE MAINLY AT KDVL
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z, WITH
A FRONT APPROACHING NORTH CENTRAL ND AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST. A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM
SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO THE REGION LATE
EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY.
THERE IS A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AROUND 12Z MONDAY MORNING CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ND WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE/CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF CONVECTION DURING
THE MORNING HOURS I ADDED PROB30 TO TAF SITES WITH BEST CHANCE
FOR IMPACTS, BUT HELD OFF ON PREVAILING CONDITIONS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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