329
FXUS63 KFGF 031747
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1247 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
PING PONG BALLS, WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
BE THREATS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 718 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
MODELS WERE CORRECT IN SHOWING THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS
FROM SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN OVERNIGHT.
FEW HAILERS AS WELL. NOW A BLOB OF NUMEROUS STORMS FROM BISMARCK
AREA TO GRAND FORKS AND EVEN TO VALLEY CITY. SHORT TERM MODELS
DO INDICATE THOUGH THIS AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SUN AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO RE-INTENSIFY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
ROSEAU-HILLSBORO-VALLEY CITY AXIS AND THEREFORE KEEP THE SEVERE
THREAT AS FORECAST FOR LATE TODAY AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS OUR REGION, WITH SW
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PACIFIC NW. THIS TROUGH
PASSAGE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF
ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (AND SEVERE RISK) TO OUR REGION
MONDAY, BUT MAY ALSO DRAW IN ADDITIONAL SMOKE ALOFT AND POTENTIALLY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SURFACE LEVEL SMOKE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS
TROUGH BECOMES A MORE DOMINATE FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK AS IT STALLS AND DEEPENS IN CANADA, AND FLATTENS THE LARGER
SCALE RIDGING. THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN SEASONAL RANGES FOR
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK (+/1 1 STANDARD DEVIATION OF NORMAL), AND A
BREAK FROM THE MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 90+ RANGE THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THE TENDENCY FOR AT MOST VERY WEAK MID LEVEL WAVES IN
MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY OR WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW LOWERS PREDICTABILITY
FOR ANY PERIODS WHEN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR AND ANY
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AFTER MONDAY.
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
INITIALLY STRONG CAPPING IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AND THE LACK OF
ORGANIZED FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION THROUGH THIS EVENING. BETTER SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
ARRIVES AS FORCING INCREASES AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
WHILE A LLJ/ELEVATED WAA REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY MORNING (GENERALLY
6AM-10AM). ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD
SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING.
..SEVERE WEATHER RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONGOING ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
IF SMOKE ALOFT IS TOO THICK OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS/ELEVATED STORMS
LINGER, SEVERE THREATS MAY REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL IN NATURE WITH
STRONGER CAPPING IN PLACE. HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS MORE CLEARING,
CAMS ARE SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR EML DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH STRONGLY SHEARED TURNING HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE TROUGH AND FRONT IN THAT
SCENARIO FOR THE CAP TO BE ERODED NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE, AND A MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. CAMS DO SHOW THE
STRONGER UH TRACKS/SUPERCELL TYPE SIGNAL WITH SOME SHOWING BOWING
TYPE MCS CLUSTERS AND THIS REFLECTS THE HIGHER LEVEL SCENARIO THAT
IS CONDITIONAL ON BETTER SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VISIBILITY AND WIND) ARE
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN AS A RESULT OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SOME SURFACE LEVEL SMOKE
ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SO FAR VISIBILITY IMPACTS HAVE
BEEN TIED TO WHERE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TRACKING.
EVENTUALLY THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (INCLUDING POTENTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS) WILL OCCUR WITH COVERAGE FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
AS THE FRONT PASSES THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL
IN NORTHWEST MN WHICH MAY LINGER IN NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, BUT BEFORE THEN
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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