780
FXUS63 KFGF 032034
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG
BALLS, WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A PV HEIGHT ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO EASTERN ND WITHIN THIS FLOW. HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS IN SD TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY COULD BE THE NEXT
AREA OF FORCING THAT COULD TRIGGER INITIATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
IN THE 22-00Z PERIOD. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO JUST SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS AND JUST WEST OF
FARGO AND IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ON
RADAR/SATELLITE AHEAD OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE. GOOD FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND AT LEAST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE) INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRY/STABLE AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH/UPPER LOW BECOMES A MORE DOMINATE FEATURE
FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION AND FLATTENS THE LARGER SCALE RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH. THIS RESULTS IN EITHER WEAKER NW FLOW OR WESTERLY FLOW AND
THE STRONGER STORM TRACK MAINLY REMAINING IN CANADA. HOWEVER, FLOW
WILL AT LEAST PERIODICALLY ALLOW FOR SOME INFLUENCE OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE MID/UPPER LOW AND PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE SIGNAL FOR POPS IS GENERALLY WASHED OUT BY THE VARIABILITY OF
THESE FEATURES IN CANADA, AND MACHINE LEARNING IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING A
SPECIFIC PERIOD FOR IMPACTS.
AFTER COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN SEASONAL RANGES FOR MOST DAYS INTO
THE WEEKEND (+/- 1 STANDARD DEVIATION OF NORMAL), AND A BREAK FROM
THE MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 90+ RANGE.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TODAY..
VERY HIGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VALUES ALREADY IN
THE 50-70KT RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA. AS DEEPER LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
TEND TO BE PARALLEL OR NEAR PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE THERE SHOULD
BE A TENDENCY FOR CLUSTERING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE MODE AND COVERAGE WILL
ULTIMATELY COME DOWN TO TIMING OF INITIATION AND CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEFORE SUNSET.
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER DISCRETE MODE
MAY BE HARD TO COME BY OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY PART OF INITIATION.
TORNADO THREAT WILL REQUIRE SURFACE BASED PARCELS WHICH FOR NOW
APPEAR HARD TO COME BY, HOWEVER WITH CLEARING THAT IS JUST STARTING
TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST ND/WEST CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAP
EROSION COULD CONTINUE AND CREATE A WINDOW FOR THIS THREAT EARLY IN
THE EVENT WITH RIGHT MOVERS THAT DO DEVELOP. MORE LIKELY SCENARIOS
FAVOR ELEVATED CELLS AND AT LEAST A WINDOW FOR TRANSIENT ELEVATED
SUPERCELL THREAT WHICH WOULD PRIMARILY FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS A THREAT.
WHETHER CLUSTERS CAN GROW UPSCALE WITH STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOLS IN
THIS SHEAR PROFILES. LINE NORMAL VECTORS ARE GOING TO TEND TO BE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST (THOUGH THE CRITICAL ANGLE WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT).
BACKWARD PROPAGATION OR TRAINING POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT PARTICULARLY
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5" ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT SHOULD BE
PROGRESSING QUICKLY EASTWARD THERE SHOULDN'T BE MORE THAN 1-3HR OF
THIS TYPE OF TRAINING, BUT THIS COULD BE ENOUGH WITH HIGHER RATS FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IF THIS HAPPENS OVER A TOWN/URBAN
AREA WHERE THERE IS POOR DRAINAGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
HIGHLY VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS (VISIBILITY AND WIND) ARE
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN AS A RESULT OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO SOME SURFACE LEVEL SMOKE
ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT SO FAR VISIBILITY IMPACTS HAVE
BEEN TIED TO WHERE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS TRACKING.
EVENTUALLY THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (INCLUDING POTENTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS) WILL OCCUR WITH COVERAGE FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TRANSITIONING
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
AS THE FRONT PASSES THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS AS WELL
IN NORTHWEST MN WHICH MAY LINGER IN NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, BUT BEFORE THEN
WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AND SPEED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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