694
FXUS63 KFGF 051149
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROTATE TO OUR NORTH OVER
CENTRAL CANADA, WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT ALLOWING FOR A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CUMULUS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. AT THIS POINT THINK WE
SHOULD STAY ABOVE THE 40 MARK OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW SPOTS COULD
GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S. A COUPLE OF THE MODEL RUNS HAVE
SOME LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW AS A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH, BUT
NBM PROBS OF ANYTHING MEASURABLE ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND SOME LIGHTNING AS SURFACE BASED CAPE LOOKS
PRETTY LIMITED AND SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 1000 J/KG. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND QUIET ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND THEN HIGH
PRESSURE COME DOWN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE.
ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. NBM HAS KEYED
IN ON ONE OF THOSE SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY BRINGING FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST 0.01
OF PRECIP. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF SUCH FEATURES IN
THE LONG TERM SEE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE IT AT THIS POINT.
TEMPERATURES SEEM FAIRLY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TO START THE DAY WITH A SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WIND UNDER 10 MPH. WINDS WILL TURN A BIT MORE
SOUTHWEST AND THEN LATER IN THE DAY WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A PERIOD
OF WINDS 10-20 KTS GUSTS TO 25 KTS PERHAPS IN NE ND AND FAR NW
MN AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE INTL BORDER.
MID CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE BORDER AS
WELL THIS AFTN SO DID PUT IN SOME BKN AC ABOVE 10000 FT AGL FOR
THIS DVL, GFK, TVF. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT BACK TO 10 KTS OR
LESS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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