269
FXUS63 KFGF 051914
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
214 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ROUNDING THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING INTO ND. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS SOME SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE, WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS UP IN CANADA. NDAWN NETWORK HAS YET TO SHOW
AND PRECIPITATION IN ND REACHING THE GROUND, AND THAT FITS THE
QPF FORECASTS FOR THE MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, SO IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES
REACH THE GROUND IT WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES
INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW, HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MANY OF THE MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT
THAT GREAT. CURRENTLY THE HREF HAS SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER, BUT UPDRAFT HELICITIES INDICATING
SEVERE ARE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME LOW LEVEL
AND ELEVATED SMOKE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SO INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER A BIT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
SMOKE.
FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. VARIOUS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT AND TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUCH
MINOR FEATURES IS HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT ANYWAY. TEMPS LOOK
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS NOW AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ABOVE 10000 FT COMING IN AND MOSTLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LOSE THEIR GUSTS
AROUND SUNSET.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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