668
FXUS63 KFGF 061935
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY IN MINNESOTA. MAIN HAZARD IS
LIGHTNING, ALTHOUGH COULDN'T RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA WILL HELP PUSH A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN INTO ND AND MN TONIGHT. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE PAST ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
SATURDAY, WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION. CAPE
VALUES FROM THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE OUT TO AROUND 600 J/KG SO IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SEVERE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER A TENTH
OF AN INCH IS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT COULD
CHANGE WITH SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES.
..SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
WESTERN MN. SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS ABOUT 500 J/KG, AND WITH A FEW
MORE HOURS OF HEATING ML CAPE COULD GET INTO THE QUADRUPLE
DIGITS. SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS, BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD GET A
FEW CELLS GOING THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL OR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE CAMS KEEP
PRECIPITATION POST FRONTAL AND UNIMPRESSIVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR CERTAIN ENOUGH TO INCLUDE EVEN
IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE TAF SITES. MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL
BE WINDS, AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP OFF THIS
EVENING, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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