933
FXUS63 KFGF 070451
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
MAINLY IN MINNESOTA. MAIN HAZARD IS LIGHTNING, ALTHOUGH
COULDN'T RULE OUT SMALL HAIL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA WILL HELP PUSH A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN INTO ND AND MN TONIGHT. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE PAST ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
SATURDAY, WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION. CAPE
VALUES FROM THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE OUT TO AROUND 600 J/KG SO IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SEVERE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER A TENTH
OF AN INCH IS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT COULD
CHANGE WITH SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES.
..SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
WESTERN MN. SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS ABOUT 500 J/KG, AND WITH A FEW
MORE HOURS OF HEATING ML CAPE COULD GET INTO THE QUADRUPLE
DIGITS. SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS, BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD GET A
FEW CELLS GOING THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL OR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE CAMS KEEP
PRECIPITATION POST FRONTAL AND UNIMPRESSIVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS OCCURRING AT TERMINALS EARLY
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WIND GUSTS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT, BEFORE
WINDS DIE BACK DOWN. THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, INCREASING AGAIN
FRIDAY LATE MORNING, WITH A COUPLE OF TERMINALS ACQUIRING GUSTS
BY AFTERNOON. BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW
FOR LLWS AT KFAR AND KBJI DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF
THE TAF. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THEREFORE ADDED
IN SCT050 AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND SUNSET ON
FRIDAY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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