431
FXUS63 KFGF 071721
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS SUNDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA WILL HELP PUSH A
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DOWN INTO ND AND MN TONIGHT. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE PAST ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR
SATURDAY, WITH A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING A WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND BREAKING OUT SOME PRECIPITATION. CAPE
VALUES FROM THE ENSEMBLE AVERAGE OUT TO AROUND 600 J/KG SO IF
ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP SEVERE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
CURRENTLY THE BEST PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER A TENTH
OF AN INCH IS SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT COULD
CHANGE WITH SUCH MINOR SHORTWAVES.
..SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
WESTERN MN. SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAS ABOUT 500 J/KG, AND WITH A FEW
MORE HOURS OF HEATING ML CAPE COULD GET INTO THE QUADRUPLE
DIGITS. SHEAR IS AROUND 30 KTS, BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD GET A
FEW CELLS GOING THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING, BRIEF
DOWNPOURS, AND EVEN A BIT OF SMALL HAIL OR GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH LATER TONIGHT, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BUT MOST OF THE CAMS KEEP
PRECIPITATION POST FRONTAL AND UNIMPRESSIVE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
4-5KFT AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO 6-7KFT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS NW
AROUND 10KTS FOR MOST BUT AS HIGH AS 15KTS FOR DVL. GUSTS UP TO
20KTS AROUND THE AREA WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND
02Z. LIGHTER 5KTS WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE A BECOMING MORE
VARIABLEIN THE AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
AREA THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT THE THE
MORNING HOURS UP TO 18Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page