601
FXUS63 KFGF 082327
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
- THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN NEBULOUS CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A PRIMARILY ZONAL JET STREAM REMAINS FIXED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF A FLATTENED RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND EXTENDING EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX.
THROUGH THE WEEK RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE JET BECOMING MORE ANTI-
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AND STEERING SHORTWAVES MORE TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER TUESDAY. NOTABLY WE DO NOT LOOK TO WARM UP WITH THIS ROUND
OF RIDGING SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR HIGHS.
- SEVERE RISK TONIGHT
GIVEN THE INCREASING DENSITY OF CAMS AND MACHINE LEARNING ALL
HIGHLIGHTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THERE HAS BEEN A 5% CIG1 INTRODUCED FOR LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE STILL PRECLUDES ANY
CATEGORICAL UPGRADES HOWEVER. WITH MOST MODELS NOW HONING IN ON
SOMEWHERE AROUND 2000 MUCAPE THIS EVENING AND SHEAR IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40-50KTS, ROBUST ROTATING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
SEEM TO BE THE PREFERRED STORM MODE IF STORMS FORM. WEAK FORCING
COMES IN THE FORM OF THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A 925-850MB FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUNDING ANALOGS
SUPPORT THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH MULTIPLE EVENTS OF 2.5-3"
HAIL COMING UP IN THE SARS SYSTEM. EVEN ON A LOW END THE
EXPECTATION TONIGHT (IF STORMS FORM) WOULD LIKELY BE 1.5-2"
HAIL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS THE TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR ZERO WITH WIND AN SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT
PERHAPS A RISK FOR 60-70MPH IF A COLD POOL CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF
AMID THE 900-1200 DCAPE. THE MAIN THREAT OVERALL LOOKS TO BE
THE HAIL THOUGH FROM 8PM TO AS LATE AS 5AM WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS POSSIBLE.
- SUNDAY AND BEYOND
WITH THE ACTIVE ZONAL JET NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO ROTATE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MACHINE LEARNING FIXATING MORE ON THE
MT/WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS CORRIDOR FOR TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HIGH PLAINS
ACTION. HOWEVER, AN AT LEAST BUOYANT AIRMASS COMPRISED OF DAILY
SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME DEGREE
OF STORM ORGANIZATION, AND A CONDITIONAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ALL ALL TAF SITES AS EVEN WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA, ONLY SOME CUMULUS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDERS. SHOULD SEE CLOUDS INCREASING A BIT
LATER TONIGHT, BUT THINK THAT ANY CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE, SO WILL KEEP PROB30
GROUPS GOING WITH JUST SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR WHAT LOOKS TO BE
LATER INITIATION. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE AFTER 04Z,
AND SOME SPOT MANY NOT SEE ANYTHING UNTIL A FEW HOURS AFTER
THAT. WINDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SOUTH AT KFAR AND KBJI AND FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES WILL BECOME
ALL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AS THE COOL FRONT PUSHES DOWN LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR
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