143
FXUS63 KFGF 091002
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
502 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 448 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
COLD FRONT AND NORTH WIND SHIFT HAS MADE IT TO NEAR PARK RAPIDS
TO WAHPETON ND LINE. FEW MID LEVEL SHOWERS AND T-STORMS DID FORM
IN A NARROW AXIS IN BETWEEN FARGO AND JAMESTOWN AND STAYED IN
THAT REGION FROM 11 PM TO ABOUT 3 AM THEN MOVED EAST-SOUTHEAST
THRU FARGO AND THEN DISSIPATED COMPLETELY BY 430 AM AS THEY
MOVED INTO CLAY COUNTY MN. SO STARTING THE DAY AT 5 AM WITH DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAIN STORMS THAT WERE IN
SOUTH DAKOTA FROM MOBRIDGE TO HURON ARE DISSIPATING WITH NEW
STORMS IN IOWA AND INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN. TEMPS WITH CLEARING
SPREADING SOUTH ARE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S NEAR CANADIAN
BORDER AND EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING SPREADING SOUTH TODAY WITH
HIGHS TODAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY LEVELS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL CWA. SO FAR STORMS IN THAT AREA HAVE NOT
BEEN NEARLY AS INTENSE AS ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER WHERE
INSTABILITY IS HIGHER. CAMS ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL 1000-2000 J/KG OF MU CAPE IN SOUTHEASTERN ND AND
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPING UP CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED
HAILERS STILL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A PRIMARILY ZONAL JET STREAM REMAINS FIXED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES RIDING ACROSS THE TOP OF A FLATTENED RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND EXTENDING EAST INTO THE ARKLATEX.
THROUGH THE WEEK RIDGING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS IT SHIFTS
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE JET BECOMING MORE ANTI-
CYCLONICALLY CURVED AND STEERING SHORTWAVES MORE TO OUR NORTH IN
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN
AFTER TUESDAY. NOTABLY WE DO NOT LOOK TO WARM UP WITH THIS ROUND
OF RIDGING SO TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR HIGHS.
- SEVERE RISK TONIGHT
GIVEN THE INCREASING DENSITY OF CAMS AND MACHINE LEARNING ALL
HIGHLIGHTING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING THERE HAS BEEN A 5% CIG1 INTRODUCED FOR LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE STILL PRECLUDES ANY
CATEGORICAL UPGRADES HOWEVER. WITH MOST MODELS NOW HONING IN ON
SOMEWHERE AROUND 2000 MUCAPE THIS EVENING AND SHEAR IN THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF 40-50KTS, ROBUST ROTATING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
SEEM TO BE THE PREFERRED STORM MODE IF STORMS FORM. WEAK FORCING
COMES IN THE FORM OF THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG A 925-850MB FRONT
THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUNDING ANALOGS
SUPPORT THIS CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH MULTIPLE EVENTS OF 2.5-3"
HAIL COMING UP IN THE SARS SYSTEM. EVEN ON A LOW END THE
EXPECTATION TONIGHT (IF STORMS FORM) WOULD LIKELY BE 1.5-2"
HAIL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED ELEVATED NATURE OF STORMS THE TORNADO
THREAT LOOKS TO BE NEAR ZERO WITH WIND AN SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT
PERHAPS A RISK FOR 60-70MPH IF A COLD POOL CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF
AMID THE 900-1200 DCAPE. THE MAIN THREAT OVERALL LOOKS TO BE
THE HAIL THOUGH FROM 8PM TO AS LATE AS 5AM WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF STORMS POSSIBLE.
- SUNDAY AND BEYOND
WITH THE ACTIVE ZONAL JET NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES ARE LIKELY TO ROTATE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MACHINE LEARNING FIXATING MORE ON THE
MT/WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS CORRIDOR FOR TYPICAL LATE SUMMER HIGH PLAINS
ACTION. HOWEVER, AN AT LEAST BUOYANT AIRMASS COMPRISED OF DAILY
SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG AND ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME DEGREE
OF STORM ORGANIZATION, AND A CONDITIONAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT
IS LIKELY TO PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF KDVL AND KGFK. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR KTVF ALSO. HAVE SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MENTION IN EITHER VC OR PROB30 GROUP FOR KFAR AND THE MN TAF
SITES. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OR CEILING WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE AWAY FROM OUR TAF SITES BEFORE 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS MAINLY IN THE 340 TO 030
RANGE FOR DIRECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
MOST SPOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR
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