996
FXUS63 KFGF 230822
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
AND WIND GUSTING TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN, BUT
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF/LOCALIZED IN THE KTVF AREA. I
CAN'T RULE OUT OTHER FOG IMPACTS DURING THE MORNING PERIOD DUE
TO BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AND NEAR CALM WINDS ALONG/EAST OF THE
RRV, HOWEVER THE SATURATED LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW AND TENDENCY
WILL BE FOR HIGHLY LOCALIZED POCKETS OF GROUND FOG.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY'S SEVERE CHANCES: THERE HAS CONTINUED TO
BE A TREND OVER THE LAST 24HR ON GUIDANCE FAVORING THE FRONTAL
ZONE PUSHING INTO OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE LARGER
SCALE FORCING IS PRIMARILY IN CANADA OR MAINLY DURING THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY INITIATING
DURING THE FAVORABLE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD WHEN SBCAPE/DCAPE
COULD BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. DUE TO INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES GREATER THAN 35KT+
ARE ADVERTISED WITH GENERALLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF
SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. DISCRETE CELLS COULD SUPPORT SIG HAIL
POTENTIAL, THOUGH WITH SHEAR PROFILES ORIENTATION IN RELATION TO
THE COLD FRONT MERGERS MAY BE MORE LIKELY IF COVERAGE INCREASES.
HIGHER DCAPE AND MIX LAYERS HIGHER GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY RFD'S,
THOUGH WEAKER 0-3KM SHEAR LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN A LARGER SIG WIND
THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR A PASSING
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER WEST,
HOWEVER. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT
OF MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS
WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. MOVING INTO TUESDAY, PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES. H5 RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN, THUS WEAKENING OUR NORTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE SPEED AND PROGRESSION OF ANTECEDENT
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND SHIFTS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELED SURFACE CAPE RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
ACROSS VARIOUS ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC NAM/NAM NEST. LOW TO
MID LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. HODOGRAPHS, HOWEVER, ARE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT AND
HAVE A DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM, THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW A
MENTION OF SUPERCELLS, WITH A CHANCE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS OR
HYBRID CLUSTERS. IN A HIGHER IMPACT SCENARIO, SUPERCELLS FORM,
BRINGING POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDING WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 75
MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. IF ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPORT SHIFTS MORE TOWARDS CLUSTERS, THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS
COULD INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. ALTERNATIVELY, IN A LOWER END SCENARIO,
STORMS FORM LATER IN THE EVENING AND SEVERE STORMS BECOME LESS
LIKELY, BUT COULD STILL SUPPORT ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING STORMS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, WITH ALL SITES REMAINING VFR
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AND
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG. HOWEVER, NOT A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE ND AIRPORTS
DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...JR
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